Tack away from your weakness

Here's the schedule:

May 13 West Virginia--28 delegates
May 20 Kentucky--51 delegates, Oregon--52 delegates
May 31 DNC bylaws committee meets to decide fate of Florida and Michigan
June 1 Puerto Rico--55 delegates
June 3 Montana--16 delegates, South Dakota--15 delegates

Obama is ignoring Hillary and acting like the primary race is over, and that's the subject of this story from the Politico. What is going to happen when Hillary whomps him in West Virginia tomorrow? I guess there's no good way to manage expectations. The media have been pushing this idea that the contest is over, and not incorrectly, but it is also true that Obama and Hillary are basically tied, with Obama having a small lead in the endgame. "She missed by an inch, not by a mile," as democratic strategist Steve McMahon said on Morning Edition yesterday. By emphasizing that Obama will be the nominee, the headlines help Hillary because tomorrow's result will seem to surpass expectations.

Meanwhile the two presumptive nominees need to get their acts together. Of Obama, Doug Shoen writes this:

Exit polls in Indiana and North Carolina show clearly that fewer than 60% of white voters believe Mr. Obama shares their values. In a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, only 45% of the American electorate said they can identify with Mr. Obama's values, compared to 54% who say they can identify with John McCain's values.

The reason for this is perfectly straightforward: Michele, Bittergate, and Wright. Shoen concludes that Obama needs to start wearing a flag pin, in an all-out strategy to prove his true-blue Americanism. I absolutely agree. There's not a moment to lose for Obama. He should go out of his way on every occasion to talk about how he loves his country. McCain is going to hammer him on this. It's the only thing McCain's got, but it is a huge advantage.

The Jeremiah Wright matter really hurt Obama in Appalachia. I'm listening to West Virginia Public Radio and a woman just said she's so turned off of Obama that if Hillary doesn't win she won't vote for Obama, sheerly because he must share some of Wright's views. She wasn't the only one interviewed who expressed such sentiments.

There's time for Obama to move beyond Michele, Bittergate, and Wright. But he needs to get on with it. I've been talking about the alterization strategy against Obama since early March. What I don't understand is why the campaign doesn't move aggressively on this front. If you know the line of attack you will face, why don't you do something about it sooner rather than later? It's the same with Huckabee failing to deal with talk radio and his religious marginalization, or Hillary failing to deal with Obama's edge in not voting for the war. If you know what the problem is, you need to act to deal with it. But it's different with candidates who don't really want to be president (the Huckster?), and Obama needs to start wearing that pin now and repeating that he loves his country to anyone who'll listen.

But back to Hillary and the war for a second. This is the reason she is losing/will lose to Barack. I praised her Iraq strategy in early August of '07 and again in late September. The idea was not to have any kind of big apology moment where she would take back her October of '02 vote on the war, but rather move her position to the antiwar side over time. OK, that's a good idea if you underestimate your competition. And I think it's clear that Obama was underestimated. He was underestimated by me first and foremost. But that Iraq vote gave Obama a major opening, and he took it to victory. What's the lesson here? That you can finesse a position or a speech but not a hugely important congressional vote. That's why it's so hard to become President as a Senator.

McCain has loads of votes that will be picked apart, Obama much less, giving Obama a major advantage in the general. Mitt Romney aide Kevin Madden said yesterday on Washington Journal that McCain can win because he consistently outpolls Republicans. David Yepsen repeats the "most electable" mantra. Karl Rove wrote this last week in WSJ:

Mr. McCain is very competitive. He is the best candidate Republicans could have picked in this environment. With the GOP brand low, his appeal to moderates and independents becomes even more crucial.

But is this true? Does McCain's vaunted appeal to swing voters make him the strongest candidate Republicans could have nominated? McCain has won elections in Arizona by 56% or more for over twenty years. His appeal in presidential politics definitely lies with swing voters and weak Republicans, based on 2000 and 2008 primary results. But inferences for general elections cannot be made based on primary results. Everyone assumes that McCain will appeal to swing voters and independents in the general election. Rove feeds this perception. But we simply don't know that this is necessarily true. The independent vote in primaries is not the same as the independent vote in the general election. Independent voters in primaries are less motivated by policy, it seems to me, and more motivated by candidate personality and backstory. McCain has the straightalker image and a great backstory, so he wins these voters. But swing voters in general elections are another animal. Are they primarily swayed by personality and backstory? Of course they are, to some degree. But there is something else which dwarfs this, I think. And that is "nature of the times." If things are going well, the "direction of the country" question which is constantly being asked, then you stay with the incumbent. If not then you kick the bums out. The 2006 election was clearly a nature-of-the-times election. Why won't 2008 be as well? In that case McCain's got big problems, because the economy and Iraq are not getting any better, and McCain is tied to the incumbent president on both of these.

McCain needs to break with Bush. I thought McCain was beginning the Big Tack back at the end of March. But since then it hasn't seemed to go anywhere. He's tried to shore up his base a little, giving a speech on the judiciary last week. He tried to make light of his connection to Bush on the Daily Show, also last week. But it's thorny, as you can see on this video. He's going to have a much harder time with his tack than Obama.