Obama the nominee

The pundits are all saying that Hillary is finished, and the pundits are right. Obama's close loss in Indiana means that he'll be the nominee.

What's interesting is the power of the pundits, the gang of 500. They all assume that Hillary's finished, and that is an insuperable obstacle to her remaining in the race. A die-hard Hillary supporter could well complain--why do the elite chattering few control what happens? The voters should decide! It's an excellent point. Obama is not going to get to 2025 with pledged delegates. But this is old news, and of course what happens is that it goes to the superdelegates, and this is why it's really the arguments of the chattering class which matters.

And of course the pundits are right. After weeks of taking a pounding, Obama still comes out strong. The bad headlines he's had, the bad debate, the bad Meet the Press (the first half-hour was painful), voters stuck with their candidate.

What does this tell us?

The first thing might be the importance of election rules. Indiana was an open primary, unlike PA which is closed, and OH which is semi-open.

The second thing is Gary county, which is basically a suburb of Chicago. They saw all the Obama news stories throughout his political career.

The third factor is Marion county (Indianapolis), which has a high black population (24%).

And the final factor is erosion in Clinton's support among key demographics (notably white women and Catholics).

One might say that Hillary's team did a poor job of managing expectations. But this the fourth quarter, and you can't spin a point deficit when there's seconds left on the clock. They needed a big win, not better spin.

Perhaps we'll save the Clinton retrospective for a later date, but what a lousy campaign they ran. What was the message? It morphed from one thing to the next, ending up with this populist candidate for the working-stiff image. Basically, Hillary was willing to tell anybody what they wanted to hear in order to be president. Obama is similarly a power-hungry political actor, but he had a message: Unity, Hope, a Candidate Above It All.

Obama should have debated, though. Now there will be enormous pressure when Obama debates McCain, and memories of the PA debate will be dredged up. Obama could have put that behind him by debating in Indiana. Smart short term that he didn't, perhaps, but not long-term.

But Obama's been through so many grueling debates that he's ready for McCain. This is another advantage for the Democrats of having a drawn-out primary season. They end up with a candidate who's vetted, who throws out the garbage in April rather than October, and who's battle-tested. You don't get that with a coronation. I don't think you can say the same for McCain. Everyone's talking about the disunity of the Democrats. But that's because it's excited, spirited disunity. The disunity of the Republicans is just as strong, and it's a dispirited, disappointed disunity. McCain got barely half Obama's vote in Indiana. Over 20% of Indiana republican primary voters voted against him.

So the people who accuse Hillary of dragging the Democratic party down to the mud are way off base. It's stupid to say a candidate who is so close to a nomination should drop out. Things can change so radically overnight, and as a candidate it's all about hanging around, hanging around, until everyone else drops away. To say "you can't win, drop out" when the contest is going on is like telling the KU basketball squad that they should have sent in the subs with thirty seconds left in the final game.

Plus Democrats should want Hillary to stay in, as Mara Liasson said on NPR yesterday, Hillary is going to win West Virginia and Kentucky, even if she drops out, which would be embarrassing for Obama.

Karl Rove made an interesting point in his parsing of Obama's speech. He warned about Obama using the phrase, "We're going to tell the truth." Rove is right. Don't promise what you can't deliver. Truth-telling is the last refuge of failed candidacies. Obama shouldn't be claiming to be the straight-talker delivering uncomfortable truths.