McCain Concedes

President Obama

Backdoor bragging

My Prediction: Obama 52%, McCain 47%.
Actual Result: Obama 52%, McCain 47%

My Prediction: Obama wins PA, Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Virginia, and Missouri.
Actual Result: Obama won PA, Ohio, Indiana, Florida, and Virginia, with Missouri too close to call

My Prediction in the Electoral College:
Obama 360
McCain 178

Actual Result in the Electoral College:
Obama 349 (could be 360 if he wins Missouri as I predicted)
McCain 163 (could be 178 if he wins NC as I predicted)

I have to say I'm happy I made that prediction post! It's gratifying after all the hours I've put into following the election, I just about nailed it with my predictions.


The Hispanic vote

...was 8% of the electorate. McCain got only 30%! That's less than the realistic estimate of Bush's percentage in '04 (44% was always unrealistic, due to an exit poll urban oversample--the middle thirties was much more realistic).

It's remarkable given McCain's record on immigration. There's no one with a more favorable record on immigration from the Hispanic point of view. Or is there? Polls show that Hispanic immigrants who have been here the longest are the least likely to favor the kinds of immigration policies McCain pushes, and most likely those immigrants are the ones with higher turnout, since people who are established in a locale tend to vote in higher percentages.

Plus McCain downplayed the immigration issue ever since it all but killed his candidacy in the summer of 2007.

West Virginia for McCain

McCain is clobbering Obama in West Virginia. Bush won the state with 56%, 423,000 votes to 326,000 for Kerry. McCain's winning it with similar numbers. The Democratic governor and senator both got reelected there.

Appalachia really doesn't like Obama, but he got OH and PA despite that. McCain really needed those states. Right-wing bloggers are congratulating Obama now.

The campaigns matter

This presidential election has convinced me more than anything that campaigns matter. I felt McCain was running a very good campaign when his polls were going up; his numbers fell when his campaign went astray.

McCain always had less resources to expend. Obama has raised $639 million. Amazingly, he has been campaigning for president for ... 639 days! That's a per diem calculation even I can make.

According to the exit polls so far, 27% of the electorate was contacted by the Obama campaign, while 18% was contacted by the McCain campaign. Obama won the people his campaign contacted 66-32. McCain won his 59-40.

Ohio goes to Obama

Obama is walloping McCain in Ohio. It's no contest; they called it with less than 20% reporting.

McCain narrowly won the white vote in OH, but the black vote was 12% of the total and it was unanimous for Obama.

40% of the electorate were Democrats, only 30% were Republicans. In 2004 it was 35% Democrat, 40% Republican.

Obama killed on "cares about people like me" in OH, 78-19.

Bush won college grads in Ohio in 2004, Obama won them tonight.

How many people have voted early?

I got a question on how may people have voted early yesterday. This from earlyvoting.net:

32 states allow no-excuse pre-Election Day in-person voting - either early voting on a voting machine or in-person absentee voting
14 states and the District of Columbia require an excuse for in-person absentee voting
1 state is all vote-by mail
4 states do not allow early or in-person absentee voting
28 states allow no-excuse absentee voting by mail
22 states and the District of Columbia require an excuse to vote absentee by mail

(The all-mail voting state is Oregon.)

In the news yesterday: 28.9 million people voted early this year.

From the Atlantic:

Historically, Republicans have had an advantage over Democrats in terms of absentee balloting; Democrats tend to outperform Republicans in terms of in-person early voting. These disparities are rooted in geography - it's easier to get people to vote in person in cities, and Democrats do well in cities, and it's easier to get people to vote by mail in more rural areas, and Republicans tend to do better in rural areas. Republicans tend to bank more absentee votes than Dems do early votes, in part because a key Democratic urban constituency: African Americans, have been suspicious of early voting.

27.7 million people voted early in 2004, 22.5% of the total. This year, 31.7 million people voted early. That would be 25% of the '04 total, but turnout will be higher this year. By the looks of that increase, the turnout of 123.5 million people in '04 will increase to 141.3 million this year. We'll see if that's correct; it would mean a turnout of 62% (the Voting Age Population of 2008 is 227.7 million).

The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
  • Jan. 15, Michigan
  • Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
  • Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
  • Jan. 29, Florida
  • Feb. 1, Maine (R)
  • Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
  • Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
  • Feb. 10, Maine (D)
  • Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
  • Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
  • Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
  • Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
  • Mar. 11, Mississippi
  • Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
  • Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
  • May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
  • May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
  • May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
  • May 27, Idaho (R)
  • Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
  • Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
  • Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
  • Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
  • Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
  • Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY

Election Day Countdown: