...was 8% of the electorate. McCain got only 30%! That's less than the realistic estimate of Bush's percentage in '04 (44% was always unrealistic, due to an exit poll urban oversample--the middle thirties was much more realistic).
It's remarkable given McCain's record on immigration. There's no one with a more favorable record on immigration from the Hispanic point of view. Or is there? Polls show that Hispanic immigrants who have been here the longest are the least likely to favor the kinds of immigration policies McCain pushes, and most likely those immigrants are the ones with higher turnout, since people who are established in a locale tend to vote in higher percentages.
Plus McCain downplayed the immigration issue ever since it all but killed his candidacy in the summer of 2007.
McCain is clobbering Obama in West Virginia. Bush won the state with 56%, 423,000 votes to 326,000 for Kerry. McCain's winning it with similar numbers. The Democratic governor and senator both got reelected there.
Appalachia really doesn't like Obama, but he got OH and PA despite that. McCain really needed those states. Right-wing bloggers are congratulating Obama now.
This presidential election has convinced me more than anything that campaigns matter. I felt McCain was running a very good campaign when his polls were going up; his numbers fell when his campaign went astray.
McCain always had less resources to expend. Obama has raised $639 million. Amazingly, he has been campaigning for president for ... 639 days! That's a per diem calculation even I can make.
According to the exit polls so far, 27% of the electorate was contacted by the Obama campaign, while 18% was contacted by the McCain campaign. Obama won the people his campaign contacted 66-32. McCain won his 59-40.
I got a question on how may people have voted early yesterday. This from earlyvoting.net:
32 states allow no-excuse pre-Election Day in-person voting - either early voting on a voting machine or in-person absentee voting
14 states and the District of Columbia require an excuse for in-person absentee voting
1 state is all vote-by mail
4 states do not allow early or in-person absentee voting
28 states allow no-excuse absentee voting by mail
22 states and the District of Columbia require an excuse to vote absentee by mail
(The all-mail voting state is Oregon.)
In the news yesterday: 28.9 million people voted early this year.
From the Atlantic:
Historically, Republicans have had an advantage over Democrats in terms of absentee balloting; Democrats tend to outperform Republicans in terms of in-person early voting. These disparities are rooted in geography - it's easier to get people to vote in person in cities, and Democrats do well in cities, and it's easier to get people to vote by mail in more rural areas, and Republicans tend to do better in rural areas. Republicans tend to bank more absentee votes than Dems do early votes, in part because a key Democratic urban constituency: African Americans, have been suspicious of early voting.
27.7 million people voted early in 2004, 22.5% of the total. This year, 31.7 million people voted early. That would be 25% of the '04 total, but turnout will be higher this year. By the looks of that increase, the turnout of 123.5 million people in '04 will increase to 141.3 million this year. We'll see if that's correct; it would mean a turnout of 62% (the Voting Age Population of 2008 is 227.7 million).
Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)