The NY Times Saturday had this article on Hillary's brilliant neutralization on the Iraq war question. It chronicles how she's become a supporter of the anti-war side gradually. Here's the crucial sentence: "Mrs. Clinton’s advisers suggested that she executed the shift with minimal political cost because there was no one moment in which she dramatically telegraphed a turn-around."
The lesson from 2004 was learned. Flip-flop without a defining moment (Kerry voting against war funding). Then you can't be called a flip-flopper, and yet it's very difficult to oppose you on the basis of past positions.
The war vote is obviously a festering sore on the Clinton campaign. But the strategy of avoiding defining moments is brilliant, because it does not refresh the memory of that vote. There's a limit to voter anger as time passes. It's just impossible to sustain anger if there's not a steady stream of reminders or smoking guns or defiance by the politician in the crosshairs. This was the Republican mistake in the 1998 midterm.
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The Schedule
- Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
- Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
- Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
- Jan. 8, New Hampshire
- Jan. 15, Michigan
- Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
- Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
- Jan. 29, Florida
- Feb. 1, Maine (R)
- Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
- Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
- Feb. 10, Maine (D)
- Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
- Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
- Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
- Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
- Mar. 11, Mississippi
- Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
- Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
- May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
- May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
- May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
- May 27, Idaho (R)
- Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
- Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
- Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
- Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
- Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
- Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
- Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY
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