2/20/08

Men like Obama

Obama got 58% of the vote and 40 delegates last night, to Hillary's 41% and 28 delegates. Obama continues to win the upscale demographic and younger voters.

Obama trounced Hillary among men, 67-31, and they were even among women. His overwhelming victory is squarely due to male voters. Why do men like him so much?

51% of the electorate chose Obama as the candidate they think is most qualified to be commander-in-chief. That's down from his total of 58%. I'm not too surprised by that, because exit polls are often worthless because voters treat them like pop quizzes--did you pay attention to the campaign, and can you match the candidate with the qualities they are purported to have? The word "qualified" is a tip-off to check Clinton, if you really are a with-it voter.

But, amongst those who chose Obama as most qualified to be commander-in-chief, these voters almost to a man (or woman) voted for Obama. The same exact pattern happened in other states, like Missouri, New Mexico and Connecticut.

I think this is telling. Is it possibly the "pop quiz question effect"? Perhaps. But it seems to me that if anything, it is Clinton who has been emphasizing the "leadership from day one" and the experience to handle complex issues, such as foreign policy, which Obama does not have. I've blogged before about the gender effect on the commander-in-chief perception issue, and it seems like it could be hurting Hillary here among male voters who want a strong leader.

The voters who said gender was important to them (only 15% of the electorate) voted for Clinton, 63-37. This means that only 5% of Obama's 58% said that the fact that he was a man was important to them, and the other 53% said it was not a factor. But I don't think that means it doesn't necessarily work on a subconscious level.

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The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
  • Jan. 15, Michigan
  • Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
  • Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
  • Jan. 29, Florida
  • Feb. 1, Maine (R)
  • Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
  • Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
  • Feb. 10, Maine (D)
  • Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
  • Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
  • Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
  • Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
  • Mar. 11, Mississippi
  • Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
  • Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
  • May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
  • May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
  • May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
  • May 27, Idaho (R)
  • Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
  • Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
  • Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
  • Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
  • Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
  • Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY

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