So goes the nation

Tonight I watched ...So Goes The Nation, the documentary Mark McKinnon said was the best political documentary he's ever seen. It was certainly up there for me. It brought to mind a comment made by James Stimson in his excellent book Tides of Consent. Stimson wrote that when you ask political consultants from both parties about a campaign, they will agree on all the major points, concerning what was important, what hurt a candidate, what was a big moment in a campaign, who scored what blow when, what worked as a strategy and what didn't. There is a shared picture of reality amongst the pros, and that they are on different sides doesn't matter. The documentary brought that out in spades regarding the 2004 race. I liked the take it had on that election because of its focus on image, message, and turnout (over the median-voter model). It was very interesting to watch especially now in 2007, in the wake of the '06 election, as we know where things went. The Republicans are portrayed--by two filmmakers who are not at all sympathetic to them--as oozing competence. The GOP was the San Antonio Spurs of national politics in 2004: they were organized, they played to win, they were professional, they followed the game plan, they executed and they won. It really makes you wonder how important campaigns really are; you almost have to answer an unreserved "yes" when it's a matter of only 60,000 OH votes. But now of course the Iraq war has made the Republicans look totally incompetent. This is an amazing collapse in the image of that party, that will affect all aspects of the '08 race, as George Will has seen in this piece.