Gender and the general election

The likeliest matchup for the general election right now is Romney vs. Hillary. The Washington Post The Trail blog today has a question that will be asked of the Republican nominee if he faces Hillary: how can you attack a woman? The answer is: only by showing her constant deference and respect, and never going after her gender.

Mitt Romney ran against a woman in 2002, and won the governorship of Massachusetts by a vote of 50 to 45. The Post blog notes that a big issue of the last week of the campaign was whether Romney was using a sexist code word when he said his opponent Shannon O'Brien's criticism of him was "unbecoming." This might very well be a sexist code word, but if it is the biggest thing you can point to to make hay out of Romney being sexist it really isn't that much.

My prediction: the Republican nominee (at this point probably Romney) will not do anything that shows disrespect to Hillary, but will bend over backwards to esteem her as a woman running for President. And Hillary will certainly not emphasize it. This does not mean it won't be a big story--it will be. And events could overtake what Hillary would prefer. The Republican loses big time if he raises gender as an issue, but Hillary loses if it becomes an issue despite her, but especially if she or her campaign does or says something that fits the paradigm set by the media ("Can a woman win the White House?" "Can a woman handle the top job?" "Can a woman be a respected Commander-in-Chief"). She's so disciplined however that I think it becomes only a temporary story.