10/18/07

Brownback out

Sam Brownback is dropping out of the Presidential race. I'm guessing that he'll endorse the Huckster.

His candidacy never caught on because he lacked executive leadership potential. It's another example of the differences between legislators and senators. Legislators have to make compromises. They delve into the details of policy and make long-winded speeches explaining it. They are forced to take positions on hard issues day after day. They cannot possibly understand every issue they vote on. They have to support things they do not especially like in order to get something that they really want. They are part of an institution that is fragmented and heavily criticized even by its own members. One former legislator in a South African provincial parliament related to me an instance where he was told he had to meet with a group of farmers on farm policy in ninety minutes, when he didn't know anything about it. It was not a fun thing to do.

Executive leadership involves the opposite of this in that it emphasizes personality and high politics more than issues and details. Senators have a very difficult time getting elected President--JFK was the last one to go from the Senate to the White House. The other JFK, in 2004, showed limitations on the campaign trail that directly flowed from his being a senator, the most famous of which was defending his Iraq-funding vote.

Next year we could easily see a sitting Senator elected President. Hillary is possibly able to do it in part because she had the strategy of running for President from the get go. Still, she voted for the Iraq war, and nothing has hounded her like that.

Brownback made a poor candidate, and exemplifies the trouble that legislators have in running for executive office. He was the first on the floor of the Senate to praise and vote for immigration reform, but then when it became clear that it did not have support, he slunk into the Senate at the end and changed his vote. Hence the main pitfall of legislative life--you are forced to take public positions when you lack complete information. An executive, on the other hand, has to be the master of calculated ambiguity. "Je vous ai compris"--de Gaulle's phrase is the model.

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The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
  • Jan. 15, Michigan
  • Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
  • Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
  • Jan. 29, Florida
  • Feb. 1, Maine (R)
  • Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
  • Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
  • Feb. 10, Maine (D)
  • Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
  • Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
  • Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
  • Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
  • Mar. 11, Mississippi
  • Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
  • Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
  • May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
  • May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
  • May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
  • May 27, Idaho (R)
  • Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
  • Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
  • Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
  • Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
  • Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
  • Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY

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