Hillary fighting a close race

Mark Mellman from The Hill has a nice summary of why the Democratic race is still up in the air. Here's his conclusion:

Questionable polls, the possibility of a close race today, late-deciding voters and events yet to unfold combine to create real uncertainty about the Iowa outcome — and that means the race for the nomination is far from over.

I've talked about voters deciding late before. High School students don't write thesis papers over the summer; they do it when they have to, when they're forced to, when there's a deadline. Voters do the same thing. If I don't have to decided who to vote for for three months, why decide now? It's perfectly rational behavior.

As far as the polls go, Mellman is referring to the very low turnout in the Iowa. I've mentioned before that turnout last time for the Democratic caucuses was 6% of all registered voters! People do not want to admit that they probably aren't going to vote in the caucuses, so it's impossible to weed out the population who is really committed to going.

It's a close race because it's not like Hillary has no competition. Both Obama and Edwards want it. And Biden, Dodd, and Richardson are likewise Presidential material. Hillary has an edge, but she's not leaving anyone in the dust.

Iowa is more important than ever because of the uncertainty of the primary calendar. Why spend money where there are question marks on whether it will make a difference? Spend it on Iowa, since you know winning there will have a huge impact. And if Hillary doesn't win Iowa, this is wide open. If she wins it she locks it up, according to Mellman, and I think he's right.