Some reflections on the Republican values voter debate on Constitution Day...
It was announced that no Democrats agreed to come and debate the following week; after hearing the provocative opening hymn the reason why is crystal clear. The opening prayer is even more revelatory of the chasm of religious style between the parties. Whichever candidate can to some degree bridge this abyss from either party has a huge advantage in the general election.
Ron Paul got his usual huge welcome from the crowd. He stopped in mid-sentence with his opening statement when the bell rang. The rest of the night the applause came during his comments before he finished. Tom Tancredo stumbled over his very first sentence of his opening statement, and totally botched his personal faith answer. The Huckster turned on the charm from the get-go in his--he's so much smoother than anyone else on stage. In his opening statement and his answers he would made his summation just two seconds before the bell rang. His answer on abortion was a little mangled at the end but the beginning was very strong, he hit the personal faith question out of the park, and effectively buttered up Phyllis Schlafly. However, he was completely confused over a question on the Mexico City policy and had to be corrected by the other candidates.
Alan Keyes went after Mitt Romney in his first answer. It'll be interesting to see if he's allowed into the other debates. His impassioned answers got little applause, until he corrected the Huckster. John Cox also came off well. He's not allowed into the other debates because his polling is too low. Ron Paul talked about the exceptions clause of the Constitution as way to deal with "activist judges" instead a constitutional amendment; a much easier proposal than the impossible route of amendment. Duncan Hunter gets in the same act that Giuliani started and the Huckster continued of getting applause by shooting Paul down on foreign policy. This happened during the debate--interestingly, the same thing happened during closing statements and Hunter did not get any response from his upbraiding of Paul. Hunter also got a laugh with "I don't belong to any organized denomination; I'm a Baptist."
The microphones needed work. There was constant whispering during answers and mics not being turned on quickly enough.
Showing posts with label Tancredo. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tancredo. Show all posts
9/5/07
Republican debate third-segment reflections
A hypothetical question about Iran become bellicose. Giuliani has a solid answer--this is his strong suit, a muscular foreign posture. Romney looks too smooth here perhaps. The Huckster's answer is revealing. As with any candidate, his strength is also his weakness. His appeal to character and heart pushes patented Huckabee positive-think generalities. This becomes a weakness, however, if the question is asked by Republican primary voters, "Do you know enough to be president?" Or put another way, "Can you stand up to Hillary in a debate." Is Huckabee a general-election winner, does he have the substance and knowledge of the nitty-gritty to at least seem presidential? This is the strong point of Giuliani and McCain, but the Huckster's weakness. It was also Candidate W. Bush's weakness. But Bush could project a toughness that Huckabee lacks.
Bob Cusack of The Hill said Romney was on the defensive all night, and that's clear. Both he and David Drucker picked Giuliani to win this debate and that's probably right too.
Bob Cusack of The Hill said Romney was on the defensive all night, and that's clear. Both he and David Drucker picked Giuliani to win this debate and that's probably right too.
Republican debate second-segment reflections
McCain has a strong answer on foreign policy leadership, but gets somewhat tepid applause. Giuliani praises McCain--the surest sign that McCain's so dead he poses no threat to the very candidate whose support he would take away if he started to rise in the polls. During the Iraq debate, the Huckster also praises McCain--says he "understands honor." More praise showing how little anybody feels McCain is a threat.
The colloquy of the debate so far is Ron Paul and the Huckster. both get huge, boisterous responses from the crowd. The Huckster is able to face down Paul purely with rhetoric ("We have to be one America." "Honor is more important than the Republican party.") It's all general with the Huckster. Not a bad strategy at all--once you go to specifics his trademark optimism has to go down the drain.
Duncan Hunter has a strong answer on Guantanamo, gets a little applause. Brownback uses the word "complementarity" to describe the Pres-Veep relationship.
Americans for Tax Reform's pledge not to raise taxes was not signed by McCain and Giuliani. A nifty tactic to make them look presidential--they're above puny pledges; they have records that "speak for themselves." A harsh question on this topic to Romney again by Chris Wallace. He handles it well and gets some applause-lines in, including a dig at Edward's haircut. Fair tax question to the Huckster. It sounds great in 30 seconds. That's the advantage of only having 30 seconds--there should have been a follow-up on that one.
Amazing non sequitur from Giuliani answering a question about his private life, but he connects the dots at the end: "My private life does not affect my public life." Good answer in the sense of turning the issue to his record. But this is such a liability with Republican voters, and Giuliani's query, "I assume this question is for me," shows how little he wanted to answer it.
The colloquy of the debate so far is Ron Paul and the Huckster. both get huge, boisterous responses from the crowd. The Huckster is able to face down Paul purely with rhetoric ("We have to be one America." "Honor is more important than the Republican party.") It's all general with the Huckster. Not a bad strategy at all--once you go to specifics his trademark optimism has to go down the drain.
Duncan Hunter has a strong answer on Guantanamo, gets a little applause. Brownback uses the word "complementarity" to describe the Pres-Veep relationship.
Americans for Tax Reform's pledge not to raise taxes was not signed by McCain and Giuliani. A nifty tactic to make them look presidential--they're above puny pledges; they have records that "speak for themselves." A harsh question on this topic to Romney again by Chris Wallace. He handles it well and gets some applause-lines in, including a dig at Edward's haircut. Fair tax question to the Huckster. It sounds great in 30 seconds. That's the advantage of only having 30 seconds--there should have been a follow-up on that one.
Amazing non sequitur from Giuliani answering a question about his private life, but he connects the dots at the end: "My private life does not affect my public life." Good answer in the sense of turning the issue to his record. But this is such a liability with Republican voters, and Giuliani's query, "I assume this question is for me," shows how little he wanted to answer it.
Republican debate's first segment reflections
Huckabee had a good joke about Thompson. McCain's joke gets a laugh as well, as does Giuliani's. McCain then ruined it by telling a "joke" that no one laughed at and that he had to tell the crowd was funny. Huckabee had the advantage of going first, but he also has great delivery about "no-show Thompson." Giuliani's joke is perhaps more memorable--Thompson did a good job of playing my job on TV. That's a more memorable line than the Huckster's, though less well-delivered.
Immigration is the first substantive topic. Romney gives a very smooth answer to a very tough question. Hunter gives a smooth response as well. The Huckster continues the strategy of his whole campaign of a kind of David Cameron conservatism--conservative policies combined with sunny, relentlessly positive rhetoric. Tancredo's impassioned response hurts Giuliani and McCain, but the contrast with Huckabee plays into the hands of the Huckster.
Hunter has an applause-line on scandals and the Democrats. He looks comfortable and presidential. Giuliani has a solid response to a gun-control question. It's right down his alley. Ron Paul gets applause for his first substantive answer, a libertarian proposal to get the government out of airport security. Brownback gets to answer two questions on family values, right down his alley.
Immigration is the first substantive topic. Romney gives a very smooth answer to a very tough question. Hunter gives a smooth response as well. The Huckster continues the strategy of his whole campaign of a kind of David Cameron conservatism--conservative policies combined with sunny, relentlessly positive rhetoric. Tancredo's impassioned response hurts Giuliani and McCain, but the contrast with Huckabee plays into the hands of the Huckster.
Hunter has an applause-line on scandals and the Democrats. He looks comfortable and presidential. Giuliani has a solid response to a gun-control question. It's right down his alley. Ron Paul gets applause for his first substantive answer, a libertarian proposal to get the government out of airport security. Brownback gets to answer two questions on family values, right down his alley.
8/24/07
Illegal immigration a hot topic for Republicans in NH
A deep concern about illegal immigration among Republicans is being reported by the Concord Monitor. Tom Tancredo is of course the Republican candidate most identified with cracking down on illegal immigrants and the employers who hire them, to the point of acting more like the representative of an interest group rather than presidential candidate, as 2008 Central has noted. Here's a quote from the article:
"People have a very deep, deep concern about this, and it's not just politicos like me. It is little gray-haired ladies and moms and dads. This has saturated the population," said Shelly Uscinski, Tancredo's New Hampshire campaign manager. "When you see all the presidential candidates have moved to the Tancredo position, you know that it's an important issue."
What's interesting is that New Hampshire does not have too many illegals.
Asked if she'd ever seen an illegal immigrant in New Hampshire, Uscinski said she doesn't ask people their citizenship status and that reporters should do more to find them. "I travel around with my candidate," she said. "I don't really imagine that too many illegal aliens or aliens would be attending Tancredo events.
The heat on this issue could be surprising in New Hampshire, a state of 1.3 million that has a small immigrant population and a tiny illegal one. According to census estimates, the state gained 13,700 immigrants from 2000 to 2006; one expert projects that the state may have a total illegal immigrant population of 6,000 to 7,000.
This should not be surprising. It's much tougher to take on big employers who profit from using illegals. But in the absence of a powerful economic interest in a state which has yet to be deeply affected by the issue, a candidate can hammer away without a lot of opposition. Getting the other candidates to move towards his position on immigration is perhaps Tancredo's real reason for running for president, and it looks like it is succeeding, as Giuliani and Romney tack to the right.
"People have a very deep, deep concern about this, and it's not just politicos like me. It is little gray-haired ladies and moms and dads. This has saturated the population," said Shelly Uscinski, Tancredo's New Hampshire campaign manager. "When you see all the presidential candidates have moved to the Tancredo position, you know that it's an important issue."
What's interesting is that New Hampshire does not have too many illegals.
Asked if she'd ever seen an illegal immigrant in New Hampshire, Uscinski said she doesn't ask people their citizenship status and that reporters should do more to find them. "I travel around with my candidate," she said. "I don't really imagine that too many illegal aliens or aliens would be attending Tancredo events.
The heat on this issue could be surprising in New Hampshire, a state of 1.3 million that has a small immigrant population and a tiny illegal one. According to census estimates, the state gained 13,700 immigrants from 2000 to 2006; one expert projects that the state may have a total illegal immigrant population of 6,000 to 7,000.
This should not be surprising. It's much tougher to take on big employers who profit from using illegals. But in the absence of a powerful economic interest in a state which has yet to be deeply affected by the issue, a candidate can hammer away without a lot of opposition. Getting the other candidates to move towards his position on immigration is perhaps Tancredo's real reason for running for president, and it looks like it is succeeding, as Giuliani and Romney tack to the right.
8/13/07
Huckabee the real winner of the Iowa straw poll
Here's the roundup:
Attendance: 30,000-33,000
Total Voters: 14,302
Romney 4,516 votes (31.5%)
Huckabee 2,587 votes (18.1%)
Brownback 2,192 votes (15.3%)
Tancredo 1,961 votes (13.7%)
Paul 1,305 (9.1%)
T. Thompson 1,039 (7.3%)
F. Thompson 203 (1.4%)
Giuliani 183 (1.2%)
Hunter 174 votes (1.2%)
McCain 101 votes (0.7%)
Cox 41 votes (0.2%)
The poor showing by Tommy Thompson resulted in him dropping out of the race.
CNS News reports on Huckabee's "likeableness." Newt Gingrich had this quote: "Mike Huckabee is not a second tier candidate. He deserves, by anyone’s qualifications, to be considered a first tier." He spent less than $200,000 on the event. Romney by contrast spent over $1 million.
Ron Paul beat expectations. Apparently he had a very visible presence, even beyond his voting numbers, as a lot of his supporters came in from out of state and could not vote.
In 1999, there were 23,685 voters. The drop-off shows the waning of enthusiasm in the Republican ranks that has been prevalent in fund-raising numbers (with Republicans behind Democrats by $100 Million so far). It is also due to McCain and Giuliani passing on the event, and Fred Thompson as having yet to enter the race, as the Des Moines Register points out.
Historically, the straw poll is not so far off in predicting the winner. Bush 43 won it in 1999, Dole tied with Phil Gramm in 1995, and Bush 41 came in third in 1987 to Dole and Pat Robertson.
Attendance: 30,000-33,000
Total Voters: 14,302
Romney 4,516 votes (31.5%)
Huckabee 2,587 votes (18.1%)
Brownback 2,192 votes (15.3%)
Tancredo 1,961 votes (13.7%)
Paul 1,305 (9.1%)
T. Thompson 1,039 (7.3%)
F. Thompson 203 (1.4%)
Giuliani 183 (1.2%)
Hunter 174 votes (1.2%)
McCain 101 votes (0.7%)
Cox 41 votes (0.2%)
The poor showing by Tommy Thompson resulted in him dropping out of the race.
CNS News reports on Huckabee's "likeableness." Newt Gingrich had this quote: "Mike Huckabee is not a second tier candidate. He deserves, by anyone’s qualifications, to be considered a first tier." He spent less than $200,000 on the event. Romney by contrast spent over $1 million.
Ron Paul beat expectations. Apparently he had a very visible presence, even beyond his voting numbers, as a lot of his supporters came in from out of state and could not vote.
In 1999, there were 23,685 voters. The drop-off shows the waning of enthusiasm in the Republican ranks that has been prevalent in fund-raising numbers (with Republicans behind Democrats by $100 Million so far). It is also due to McCain and Giuliani passing on the event, and Fred Thompson as having yet to enter the race, as the Des Moines Register points out.
Historically, the straw poll is not so far off in predicting the winner. Bush 43 won it in 1999, Dole tied with Phil Gramm in 1995, and Bush 41 came in third in 1987 to Dole and Pat Robertson.
7/12/07
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