Values debate reflections

Some reflections on the Republican values voter debate on Constitution Day...

It was announced that no Democrats agreed to come and debate the following week; after hearing the provocative opening hymn the reason why is crystal clear. The opening prayer is even more revelatory of the chasm of religious style between the parties. Whichever candidate can to some degree bridge this abyss from either party has a huge advantage in the general election.

Ron Paul got his usual huge welcome from the crowd. He stopped in mid-sentence with his opening statement when the bell rang. The rest of the night the applause came during his comments before he finished. Tom Tancredo stumbled over his very first sentence of his opening statement, and totally botched his personal faith answer. The Huckster turned on the charm from the get-go in his--he's so much smoother than anyone else on stage. In his opening statement and his answers he would made his summation just two seconds before the bell rang. His answer on abortion was a little mangled at the end but the beginning was very strong, he hit the personal faith question out of the park, and effectively buttered up Phyllis Schlafly. However, he was completely confused over a question on the Mexico City policy and had to be corrected by the other candidates.

Alan Keyes went after Mitt Romney in his first answer. It'll be interesting to see if he's allowed into the other debates. His impassioned answers got little applause, until he corrected the Huckster. John Cox also came off well. He's not allowed into the other debates because his polling is too low. Ron Paul talked about the exceptions clause of the Constitution as way to deal with "activist judges" instead a constitutional amendment; a much easier proposal than the impossible route of amendment. Duncan Hunter gets in the same act that Giuliani started and the Huckster continued of getting applause by shooting Paul down on foreign policy. This happened during the debate--interestingly, the same thing happened during closing statements and Hunter did not get any response from his upbraiding of Paul. Hunter also got a laugh with "I don't belong to any organized denomination; I'm a Baptist."

The microphones needed work. There was constant whispering during answers and mics not being turned on quickly enough.

Huckabee the real winner of the Iowa straw poll

Here's the roundup:

Attendance: 30,000-33,000
Total Voters: 14,302

Romney 4,516 votes (31.5%)
Huckabee 2,587 votes (18.1%)
Brownback 2,192 votes (15.3%)
Tancredo 1,961 votes (13.7%)
Paul 1,305 (9.1%)
T. Thompson 1,039 (7.3%)
F. Thompson 203 (1.4%)
Giuliani 183 (1.2%)
Hunter 174 votes (1.2%)
McCain 101 votes (0.7%)
Cox 41 votes (0.2%)

The poor showing by Tommy Thompson resulted in him dropping out of the race.

CNS News reports on Huckabee's "likeableness." Newt Gingrich had this quote: "Mike Huckabee is not a second tier candidate. He deserves, by anyone’s qualifications, to be considered a first tier." He spent less than $200,000 on the event. Romney by contrast spent over $1 million.

Ron Paul beat expectations. Apparently he had a very visible presence, even beyond his voting numbers, as a lot of his supporters came in from out of state and could not vote.

In 1999, there were 23,685 voters. The drop-off shows the waning of enthusiasm in the Republican ranks that has been prevalent in fund-raising numbers (with Republicans behind Democrats by $100 Million so far). It is also due to McCain and Giuliani passing on the event, and Fred Thompson as having yet to enter the race, as the Des Moines Register points out.

Historically, the straw poll is not so far off in predicting the winner. Bush 43 won it in 1999, Dole tied with Phil Gramm in 1995, and Bush 41 came in third in 1987 to Dole and Pat Robertson.