The real reason Newt dropped out

Four days after I predicted that Gingrich was planning on running for President, he announced that he would not. Why? The answer given is that he did not want to step down from his nonprofit group, American Solutions, through which he can effect a deeper, long-term change.

It is inconceivable that anyone with political sense would swallow this whopper.

Gingrich is a smart cookie. He's been around. He knows politics, he knows strategy. He's not going to make up his mind on the basis of new information that his lawyers had to tell him right before he was planning to launch a bid.

The real reason, which I should have predicted before, is that Gingrich is in the business of self-promotion. Whether that includes a White House bid in the future is a possibility.

Newt knows he's unelectable, at least right now in an election year that will so heavily favor Democrats. By playing hard to get, and leading the media on, Newt maximizes his exposure. He maximizes the publicity for his nonprofit group--a lot more people are probably going to that website now and signing up. He maximizes his possibilities for 2012 or 2016 (he'll be 72 by then, but that's how old Reagan was during his last campaign).

And then? He pulls out right before people start to give money. Right before anyone would get really mad.

He can claim he would've been competitive. He can have the conservative commentators, and really any commentators, lamenting that he did not enter to liven up the field. He's got everyone eating out of his hand.

So savvy. I'm impressed.

Gingrich not running

Days after I posted that Newt was going to launch a bid for the Republican nomination, the former speaker has decided not to run, CNN reports today.

Here's the story from the Politico.

This is unfortunate, as it makes the Republican field a lot less lively.

Newt in by end of October

Newt Gingrich said he would run for president only if the Fred Thompson campaign did not take off. Well, it hasn't taken off.

So Newt is going to have a press conference October 1st, where his campaign manager will ask for donations, and if he gets $30 million by the end of the month, he's in, according to the video below from Fox News.

Will Newt shake things up on the Republican side? Of course he will. But here's Jay Cost's analysis: "Newt Gingrich is so obviously unelectable that you'd think he wouldn't be considering a run." Cost points to polling results that shows Newt is not popular. He admits this might change if he jumps in the race.

Newt is a flawed candidate in a flawed Republican field. He has a real chance to be the nominee if he raises the money, though. He will light up the debates, and his unpopularity in the general election will not mean he won't win primary votes.

Newt's running

Robert Novak on Newt

Robert Novak on Newt:

Newt Gingrich is telling Republican insiders that his decision in September whether to run for president in 2008 depends on the progress of Fred Thompson's imminent candidacy. If Thompson runs a vigorous and effective campaign, Gingrich says privately, he probably will not get in the race himself. If Thompson proves a dud, however, the former House speaker will seriously consider making a run. That implies that the others in the field look to Gingrich like losers in the general election. A footnote: Gingrich has weighed in more heavily on the immigration issue than any of the major Republican presidential hopefuls. He has bombarded Republican Senate offices with material attacking the immigration bill backed by President Bush, even sending proposed talking points to senators about to meet with the president.