Giuliani tacking to the right

Giuliani wants to end illegal immigration. He also has been backing away from civil unions. This is the first semblance of a strategy I've seen from Giuliani. Cruising with a national lead in a contest that is not about national polls at all is a very tenuous position.

The New York Times had a piece about Hillary and the war, which I've discussed here, about her lack of an "I'm sorry, real sorry" moment concerning her vote in October 2002 on the war, and how it was shrewd for her to modify her positions gradually without a flip-flop label being able to be placed on her.

Giuliani would be well advised to do the same thing. The two issues mentioned above are placed he can go right with it fitting his image. It's smart that he's starting to do it now, instead of just coasting without a strategy, which was my impression of his campaign thus far.

But can he do it on abortion? I think he can. First of all, he was perhaps smart to recognize that to have a conversion like Romney looks artificial. That's Romney's weak point--he's too slick, too polished. Giuliani comes across as much more genuine. So for the latter to stay with his pro-choice position keeps his authenticity intact.

But now why can't the Giuliani camp start a hard tack to the right on abortion, such that he ends up more pro-life than pro-lifers but without the label? He's already started this process by promising to champion conservative federal judges.

The difficulty is obvious--it's too subtle. Elections are not about subtlety, they're about labels, stereotypes, short and simple messages being pounded into the heads of whoever's listening.

But Giuliani could conceivably pound a pro-life message across in all but its name. In so doing he could exploit a weak point in the pro-choice argument. That argument is genuinely personally opposed to abortion. A politician running for federal office will not proclaim abortion to be a positive good, a happy thing, that every woman should get. The vast majority of the time it is portrayed as a tragedy, yet one in which some (religious) people should not be able to impose their beliefs on others.

That's a very powerful argument, and Giuliani accepts it. But why could he not focus on his personal opposition, as well as his position that conservative judges are needed, and come out basically in the same place as pro-lifers? If he hammered that message day in and day out, it would be tough for pro-lifers to criticize him. It would also still be authentic. It could very well not work, but it is Giuliani's best shot to capture the base of the Republican party. That will become necessary in South Carolina--there's a good article about that state's role in the Republican primary process here.