That's the question at this point. I define a blowout by a candidate winning with 350 electoral votes or more. There's about a 50-50 chance that it will be a blowout for Obama, according to the chart above from Five-Thirty-Eight.
Five-Thirty-Eight has also been contending that the race nationally needs to tighten five points for McCain to have a chance. There's been no movement in McCain's direction, however, and he's never been over 44% since the Ides of September, when some crazy bloggers were predicting a McCain blowout, but after which his campaign went south.
Something dramatic would have to happen for McCain to win now. But this is not impossible. The 2000 election featured a surprise release of Dubya's DUI right before election day, which had an impact on undecided voters. It seems less likely now, but there could be an international incident. The Bush administration has been very reckless in provoking Pakistan and Syria in recent days, bombing inside Pakistan and conducting a raid inside Syria, and a cynic could with a lot of justification say they were trying to provoke retaliation that could create such an incident.
An international crisis is the only thing that can save McCain now.
1 comment:
I'm putting it at about 390 for Obama. That's where i've had it for about a month and it appears headed down that route. Interesting chart, your blog is very well designed though i could do without the one pop up i got.
If Obama wins, or when, there's a pretty good article that talks about the expansion of the war on terror under the next Adminstration. You may want to look into it:
www.usmondaymorningnews.tk
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