Can Huck pull it out?

Great article from the Politico. It's tempting to predict that Romney's going to edge out Huckabee in Iowa. Barring a major blunder, Romney would then coast to the nomination.

Huckabee has gotten a lot of negative press. How has he handled himself? His Meet the Press half-hour on Sunday was practically flawless. The irony is that his campaign relies on free media, which is a huge problem as a front-runner subjected to an incredibly hostile media.

Here's a good part of the Politico article:

Stephanie Cutter, who served as a top communications aide to Kerry in 2004, points out that intra-party contests “are very different than general elections.”

“What’s reaching Iowa caucus-goers is very different than what we’re reading in the papers every day" in Washington, Cutter said.

Saltsman makes a similar point to pooh-pooh the impact of the past month.

“This is a caucus state, not a primary state, and we’re talking about 85,000 voters,” he says. “We can effectively communicate with our bloc of voters pretty regularly and we do.”

Primary voters, particularly in Iowa, are not as buoyed back and forth by what seems to be the media trends. John Kerry was a great example. The difference is, however, that the media was focused on Dean and Gephardt, and not giving Kerry a month of negative coverage right before the caucus.

I think the Huckster still has a great chance to win Iowa. The attacks are damaging, to be sure. There was the news conference yesterday that was widely derided as a blunder. Huckabee got laughed at by representatives of the gang of 500. But again returning to the counterpoint in the Politico article--does that make Huckabee look silly or not? Certainly a room full of Iowa voters laughing at him would be a disaster. But the reason he was laughed at by the reporters was because they knew he was playing the ad for them to report and play for free. They were laughing at his thinly-veiled strategy. But voters don't necessarily care about cynicism of the national press. It seems to me if Huckabee wins Iowa, it will be because the Iowa caucus-goers distinguish between the candidate and the media's constant need for a daily story. That would be a remarkable thing--mostly voters can't distinguish this, which is why Iowa and NH determine in large part the shape of the rest of the race, because it becomes a purely media campaign.

What's much more damaging, and has been covered here, is the attacks by conservatives (Rush Limbaugh, Peggy Noonan, Matt Drudge). If the Huckster loses Iowa, that will be a big reason why.