12/29/07

Romney ad verdict

The ad below is Romney's latest attack on the Huckster in Iowa. It's well put together, but I'm skeptical that it will help them. Iowans tend to eschew negative ads. But more importantly I think it expresses the difference between the candidates almost too well, as shown by their different answers to the "first year in office" question in the final Iowa debate. Romney ticked off a list of things that Huckabee called a "laundry list." The Huckster then pledged to be a president for all Americans.

Romney is a details man with a strictly-business persona. The attacks in the ad tick off a number of completely different items. They are grouped under the mantra of Romney offering "strong leadership." But Romney's switching on positions to become president belies this.

The most interesting to me is the foreign policy question. Huckabee has opened a huge can of worms by being willing to break with Bush's foreign policy. The question for Iowan voters becomes, are Hucabee's statements more or less ludicrous than continuing to support a train-wreck of a foreign policy? Ron Paul's campaign has been fueled by discontent over a clear disaster of a foreign policy, and it seems like the Huckster is trying to capitalize on this. The question is how many Republican primary voters want to follow it. It's not inherently un-Republican. The last time there was no incumbent running, the Republican candidate ran on a platform of a more humble foreign policy.

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The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
  • Jan. 15, Michigan
  • Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
  • Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
  • Jan. 29, Florida
  • Feb. 1, Maine (R)
  • Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
  • Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
  • Feb. 10, Maine (D)
  • Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
  • Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
  • Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
  • Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
  • Mar. 11, Mississippi
  • Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
  • Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
  • May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
  • May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
  • May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
  • May 27, Idaho (R)
  • Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
  • Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
  • Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
  • Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
  • Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
  • Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY

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