Obama gradually losing steam

The fact that Hillary raised more money than Obama in the third quarter is a big deal in terms of perceptions. It is pretty meaningless in terms of actually winning votes that count.

However, campaigns are won not by this or that element, but by fighting day to day. One lost day after another eventually adds up, as Fred Thompson is finding out right now. Hillary is winning a lot of days now, ever since the colloquy with Obama in late July. Since that time she's gained seven points in national polls, going from 38% to 45%.

There have been ups and downs. Getting booed at YearlyKos. The Norman Hsu scandal. But Hillary battled on, going five-for-five on the Sunday news shows a couple weeks ago, and now winning the fund-raising battle by $2 million. Politics is a game of inches, and Hillary has been inches ahead of Obama.

But Obama has not yet begun to fight. I believe now is the time for him to start hitting her. Not hard, no dramatic moment of harsh criticism, but by starting now and gradually edging up the rhetoric, his attacks won't seem like a big deal two months from now. Then when he goes negative, there will not be a big hypocrisy story.

From the Hotline's Blogometer on this topic:

OBAMA: Kumbaya Ain't Cutin' It

Opinions differ as to why, but the verdict is clear: Barack Obama's campaign has stalled. Explanations include:

The Huffington Post's Adam Moorad: "If he is to make any headway as the Democratic frontrunner, his tactics must change. ... It is not that Obama is moving in the wrong direction. It is that he is not moving in any direction. ... His reputation is gradually overshadowing him. ... Attacking Clinton could jeopardize his image as the man who refuses to do things the old, Washington way. Furthermore, there is little evidence that Obama's candidacy offers much of a distinction between his and Clinton - except for her greater experience. That fact makes Obama's task all the more difficult."

Oliver Willis: "Either Hillary Clinton is going to absolutely destroy her Democratic rivals on the way to the White House, or John Edwards and Barack Obama need to find a way to wake up their sleepy campaigns. ... I think that sort of kumbaya rhetoric is not what a post-Bush Democratic base wants to hear at all. It certainly does nothing for me, and in many ways I'm supposed to be Sen. Obama's target demo."

Brendan Nyhan: "Obama is paying the price for the easy road he had in 2004. The collapse of his main primary opponent and his landslide win in the general election meant that he never had to go negative. As a result, he is not comfortable doing so and spends much of his time spouting goo-goo nonsense about everyone getting along. The reality, however, is that negative campaigning is essential to democratic politics, especially when you're not the frontrunner. It's how voters get (a) competition for their votes and (b) sharp contrasts between the candidates. Right now Obama's reluctance to go negative is depriving Democratic primary voters of both."

The Plank's Michael Crowley: "I'm wondering whether there's another problem with Obama's campaign theme: namely, that Democratic primary voters don't particularly want hope right now. They want revenge! Heads on stakes! As much satisfying payback as possible. Maybe lots of swing voters really do want to end the "partisan bickering in Washington" and bridge ideological differences--but not Daily Kos readers and their ilk."