10/8/07

Republicans in Iowa

Here's the results of the latest Iowa poll and commentary from Jonathan Martin of the Politico:

Romney: 29
Thompson: 18
Huckabee: 12
Giuliani: 11
McCain: 7
Others: 14
Unsure/Uncommitted: 9

What is interesting, per the Register's write-up, is that Huckabee is strongest among those Republicans who have made up their mind. Of the 1/4 of those sampled who said they had made up their minds, Huck gets 19 followed by Romney's 16 and Thompson's 15.

This is big. In the time we have before the caucus, Huckabee is going to gain ground while Thompson looses it. The real question will become, can Romney win a big enough victory. Huckabee's in a really nice spot here. His fund-raising is down, yes, but there's no expectations for him. That's key, because he could leverage a second-place finish into a "comeback kid" narrative for the media desperate for an angle. "Romney does just about as well as expected" is not an interesting angle. The comparisons will also be there with the other governor from Hope in NH fifteen years ago.

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The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
  • Jan. 15, Michigan
  • Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
  • Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
  • Jan. 29, Florida
  • Feb. 1, Maine (R)
  • Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
  • Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
  • Feb. 10, Maine (D)
  • Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
  • Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
  • Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
  • Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
  • Mar. 11, Mississippi
  • Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
  • Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
  • May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
  • May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
  • May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
  • May 27, Idaho (R)
  • Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
  • Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
  • Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
  • Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
  • Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
  • Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY

Election Day Countdown:

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