McCain's Game Plan

More bad news for Republicans--the Dept. of Justice violated hiring rules, and Ted Stevens is indicted. It just keeps piling on.

Charlie Cook has a great post today on the Obama bounce in the aftermath of his overseas trip. I want to go through it.

First of all, Gallup's tracking poll now has Obama outside the margin of error. As Cook notes, this is meaningless as a predictor of what will happen on election night. However, it gives us a sense about the present state of the race. Obama is up. He hasn't sealed the deal, as Cook notes, but he's up.

Cook writes:

But over the last two weeks, McCain and his campaign have taken on an edgier, angrier and even mean-spirited tone. As one observer put it, it gives the impression of McCain as a cranky old man standing on his front porch in a bathrobe and slippers barking at the neighborhood kids to get off his lawn.

Should this race get to the point where Obama is seen as more presidential and McCain is perceived as angry and bitter, a campaign that is legitimately competitive won't be for long.

This is heading where I though it would. I always said that McCain's edge as a "Maverick" was due to the media loving him, and now that he is what is standing in the way of a historic Obama presidency, he has lost a major part of his advantage, viz. good media coverage. I have also said that McCain's temper and his free-speaking, qualities gained from a long period in the Senate, would be a hindrance on the presidential campaign trail. As soon as the spotlight is on, I thought McCain would wilt. That seems to be happening to some degree now. McCain's campaign is somewhat in a shambles. They could and will rebound, but right now ask yourself the question, What is their strategy? What are they going to do to beat Obama?

The strategy I thought they were going to use was alterization. But McCain goes to the NAACP and complements Obama. This left right-wing radio hosts scratching their heads. Why is he doing this?

The key to beating your opponent is to attack him/her without it looking like you are attacking, that is, without looking angry and mean and desperate. McCain's hammering of Obama just as it looked like his trip was a great success looks like all three of these.

Cook notes that 13% of people think the country is on the right track, and only 30% support President Bush. This is Watergate territory. But as Cook also rightly notes, the electoral college could be a lot tighter than the popular vote. Obama will run up the score in liberal states, but they're still worth the same electoral votes.

One last quote:

And for this particular matchup, when 55 percent chose "this is a time when it is important to look for a person who will bring greater changes to the current policies even if he is less experienced and tested," compared to 40 percent who chose "this is a time when it is important to look for a more experienced and tested person even if he brings fewer changes to the current policies," it does not bode well for McCain.

McCain needs Obama to fumble the ball. Bush 43 benefited greatly from Gore making all kinds of petty lies and then veering wildly from one style to the other in the debates. McCain should avoid the anger and pandering to hopelessly Democratic constituencies, and attack Obama subtly as not experienced enough or American enough to be President.