On the ground in Indiana

Obama's people are out in force in South Bend. Just this weekend, we had three groups of Obama campaign volunteers come to our house. (Of course, we live in a neighborhood that is almost the perfect Obama demographic -- African Americans, college professors, and college students. There is only one Hoosiers for Hillary sign in our entire neighborhood.) The first group to stop at our house was a black family of seven. The second group were two white Chicagoland professionals (they were by far the most knowledgeable and articulate). The last group was a retired Portuguese professor and her friend. Interestingly, all three were groups were very assertive -- all asked us who we were going to vote for. You can see why Obama does well in caucuses.

I have been thoroughly unimpressed by Hillary's campaign in South Bend. She has made several visits but otherwise has not made much of an impression. (Again, though, I live in a heavy Obama neighborhood and Hillary -- understandably -- has concentrated her efforts elsewhere in South Bend, targeting the large lower-middle-class white and Hispanic populations in west and south South Bend and in Mishawaka.) The picture from her latest visit in the newspaper (with her speaking outside her campaign office) showed only a few dozen people in attendance.

If I were just judging from my experience in South Bend, I would predict an Obama landslide. But South Bend is not indicative of the state. It is one of the few areas in Indiana that has an Obamacentric demographic -- a large African American population and a large, well-educated, and relatively wealthy Caucasian population. Hillary's key to victory is not so much South Bend but the smaller towns surrounding it, which are more typical of the Indiana demographic as a whole. She's made campaign stops at places like Plymouth and Goshen. Tomorrow should be an interesting day.