What will happen in PA

I blogged about the debate last week before I read or heard any reactions to it. I was surprised by the high level of negative response from the punditry. Dick Polman had a scathing post on Obama's performance that was very convincing. His point was that Obama failed to win over the conservative Democrats that he needs to win in higher percentages to cut into Hillary's lead. Very convincing. Almost.

I know that perceptions are shaped by media reactions to things, but this vote is so big that I don't see Pennsylvanians being swayed so much by Obama's supposedly dismal performance. It was bad in a number of respects, of course, but for reasons that are more relevant to superdelegates worried about McCain picking off lower-class white voters in November.

And here's the reason why: this is an extraordinary moment in American history. People are desperate for something different, and Clinton represents the politics of the past, while Obama clearly represents the future.

By a coldly realist standard, everything in the preceding paragraph is bunk, but nevertheless it is the aura the Obama campaign has successfully wrapped itself in. And it is going to triumph in the end. If this were a normal election year, it would not (which does not spell good news for McCain). But the perceptions are that things have gotten so bad that normal is out the window. Obama has been able to rally young voters, who normally are complacent. I didn't think he could pull it off, but he has.

It's been basically a 6-point gap for the last three weeks. I predict Clinton by six. That's enough for her to continue in the race. But it's not enough. She needs another 9-10 point victory as she did in Ohio. If she doesn't get it, with Obama seeming like the underdog going in, the story will be on his inroads with white voters.