Bill Clinton event in western PA

I just came back from an event with Bill Clinton in Western PA. It was interesting; I got to sit up front in the third row to the left of the stage, and got to shake his hand afterwards. The county executive gave the introduction, with a speech "he came up with today in the bathroom" according to my friend who was next to me. The crowd was maybe 600 people, students and union members; it seemed kind of small in the big arena. I thought the response was surprising tepid. Clinton didn't have the crowd eating out of his hand or anything. He looked tired. There were big bags under his eyes.

He was an amazing speaker though. He only made one mistake the whole speech though, which he quickly corrected, and didn't say "um" or "uh" once. A dollar for every "um" and "uh" between Hillary and Barack and you could balance the federal budget. Everyone came away convinced that this guy would blow away Barack in a debate. "I would vote for him in a second" was one response. The event was at a university, a demographic more enthusiastic for Obama. Clinton had the pulse of the place he was at, getting the name of the University's president right, and understanding the nature of the institution and referring to it several times.

The introduction focused on economic issues, and that's how Bill began his speech, quickly abandoning the podium for a wireless microphone in his right hand, pointing his finger with his left hand for emphasis. After a short time on the economy he talked for an extended time on Iraq. It was powerful stuff, on how bad the situation is. The audience was very responsive. He said she promised "if conditions don't change" to bring home the troops in the first 16 months.

He was able to articulate very well why leaving Iraq will be better for the Iraqis. He had a homespun metaphor about going to the dentist. "What will it take to get the Iraqis to make the hard decisions?" he asked. "They have to decide how to divide up the oil wealth." It's tough, and we always want to put off tough decisions. "People don't make tough decisions until they have to--why do you think the dentist's office always makes you schedule the next appointment right away?" he said to laughs. "I'm 61 and I still don't like it when they put that needle into my gums!" Only a timeline for withdrawal will force the Iraqis to get their act together.

He talked about leaving a contingent in the north "to fight al-qaeda." That surprised me, since "al-queda in Iraq" is not exactly the same as al-qaeda that did 9/11. He was basically going along with Bush's position about the importance of fighting al-qaeda in Iraq. Why is that? Leave a contingent in the north--is that to protect the Kurds when we leave? Ended up talking about the harm to the troops, bolstered by the recent RAND study. This resonated with the audience.

He spent a long time talking about energy independence. He was really pushing this idea of a cheap hybrid car. Technology will solve all our problems. The same way with health care--just eliminate the paperwork and use the savings to pay for care for poor people. It sounded nice. It resonated. Yet the remarks were not a totally a frank assessment of what a european-style health-care system would mean exactly. But of course that would be too frank, and politicians are constrained by the receptivity of the American people, and have to work in increments.

The response on energy independence surprised me. A lot of enthusiasm when he was talking about this. "A hybrid car would mean that we could tell the oil sellers: 'Charge $100 a barrel. Heck, charge $200, or three.'" The audience was also surprisingly responsive when he mentioned finding an answer to the Israeli-Palestinian question--it got a big cheer.

Clinton praised his wife for "biting the bullet and talking straight" on the issue of trade. Said there was problems with NAFTA, and that we cannot enforce trade agreements with countries that are our bankers. "Would you go to your banker and slug him in the face?" "Would you buy a car from a dealership that violated the warranty on your last car?" Homey analogies for a complex international issue. Not as huge responses from the crowd on this stuff.

Not a syllable said about fighting terrorists. This is still in the air, of course; Obama just had a soundbite on the air this morning about fighting the important war in Afghanistan. But there is a shift in the public's mood. I think the Republicans will find it harder to play the national security card in the general.

They will also find it hard to play the typical managing-the-economy card. Bill played heavily to the need for a balanced budget "and investment in our future." Tax cuts for the wealthy were decried. Super-rich tax evasion was decried. "Never in our history has so much money rained down on so few people in such a short period of time."

The end fo the speech was him warmly praising Hillary. How much she cares, how experienced she is (that was a theme throughout). "If I wasn't married to her, I'd still be supporting her as the most qualified candidate for the presidency we've had in a long time." At the beginning of the speech he said she was "more qualified that I was when I took office." It was a little bit strange. Like Obama not just coming out and saying-like-he-means it, "I love this country," Bill didn't just say "I love Hillary so much." Of course, this would lead people's minds to the wrong chain of connections perhaps.