Hillary up in swing states

Democratic bloodletting will continue for a long while; probably to the convention.

And here's why: each candidate is basically flawed. After a long string of votes and media coverage, we can abandon hypotheses and now state with certainty the score.

And that is: Hillary Clinton is unlikable, Barack Obama is untested. This was the narrative each campaign was trying to exploit in the other's. And they both succeeded all too well. Obama portrayed himself as above the fray, a shot at Hillary's divisiveness and unlikability. Hillary portrayed herself as experienced, a shot at Obama's lack of that particular commodity.

None of this is new. Except for the fact that now we can say that both were right. Obama did not have enough votes from voters who were sick of the Clinton's to put him over the top, and Hillary did not have enough votes from voters who wanted to stick with a known entity to put her over the top.

So the speculation can end. Hillary's strategy worked; Obama's strategy worked. We know that now. But there's nowhere to go from here.

All these calls for Hillary to drop out (Leahy, various and sundry pundits), are extremely counter-productive for Democrats. First of all, it becomes a self-fulfilling promise to say "it's hurting the party for Hillary to stay in." Why not focus on the high turnout? A little democratic competition is supposed to be healthy. This sounds stale coming from the candidates; other Dems should say it.

Secondly, that is even more true when you consider that there's no way in heck Hillary will drop out. She's going to win PA. Then she'll look like a big winner, and the narrative of all these stories on how she's only got a 5% shot at the nomination will be dropped in favor of something else completely. Obama's (extremely weak) statement saying she should stay in might have been motivated by the whole don't-look-like-you're-picking-on-a-girl strategic consideration, but it could also have the (wise) motivation of managing expectations. If Obama's the presumptive nominee, why would a crucial state like PA not rally behind him? Doesn't bode well for future coverage.

And there's the argument that she'll be the stronger nominee, that's buttressed by recent polls.

From Reuters:

She also runs better against the likely Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain, in Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio -- all important swing states in the general election.

In a general election matchup in Florida, McCain closely trails Clinton 42 percent to 44 percent but McCain leads Obama, who would be the first black president, 46 percent to 37 percent, according to the poll.

"The difference between Clinton and Obama in Florida is the white vote," said Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

In Ohio, Clinton has a 48 to 39 percent lead over McCain after months of too-close-to-call results, the poll found. In an Obama-McCain matchup, Obama gets 43 percent against 42 percent for McCain.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton tops McCain 48 to 40 percent and Obama leads the Arizona senator 43 percent to 39 percent.

Among Pennsylvania Democrats, Clinton leads 54 to 37 percent with women and ties Obama with men at 46 percent support.