3/5/08

It's down to the superdelegates

First I have to brag about my prediction. I'm loathe to predict, but I'm glad I made an exception this time--I was only one point off in Ohio and Texas.

So Hillary fights on. It could have been over tonight and it's not. Hillary won Ohio by over ten points and Texas more narrowly. It's exactly what she needed to do.

From Josh Marshall:

A lot's getting said tonight. And a lot of it is baseless speculation. But the one thing that rings true to me is this: The Clinton campaign got rough and nasty over the last week-plus. And they got results. That may disgust you or it may inspire you with confidence in Hillary's abilities as a fighter. But wherever you come down on that question is secondary to the fact that that's how campaign's work. Opponents get nasty. And what we've seen over the last week is nothing compared to what Barack Obama would face this fall if he hangs on and wins the nomination. So I think the big question is, can he fight back? Can he take this back to Hillary Clinton, demonstrate his ability to take punches and punch back? At the end of the day, the winner of the pledged delegate race has the strongest claim to the nomination. Everything else is spin. But it's a strong claim, not incontestable.

Markos Moulitsas concurs: Obama may finally have to go negative. I've never seen him do that. He's never had to do that.

From the Politicker:

Obama’s chief strategist David Axelrod hinted to reporters that the senator may now become more aggressive toward the Clinton team and might beginning raising questions about the ethics of Hillary and Bill Clinton.

When I asked Axelrod whether the apparent effectiveness of the Former First Lady’s more negative tone in recent days posed a problem for Obama, he responded: “If Senator Clinton wants to take the debate to various places, we’ll join that debate. We’ll do it on our own terms and we’ll do it in our own way. But if she wants to make issues like ethics and disclosure and law firms and real estate deals and all that sort of stuff issues, I don’t know why they’d want to go there.”

The words seemed like an allusion to Whitewater, but Axelrod in fact cited the Clintons’ reluctance to release their tax returns as one example where, “for all their yammering about how unfairly they have been treated, they haven’t really been pursued at all by the media on some of these questions.”


The superdelegates are going to decide this thing. Hillary's not going to drop out anytime soon. From the Telegraph:

The 795 super-delegates – Congressmen, party officials and insiders – who have a free vote in choosing the nominee, will be decisive.

Her lead among super-delegates was whittled down to 40 from 90 as Mr Obama surged through 11 victories in February and more and more jumped on his bandwagon.

After last night, many are likely to sit on the fence until Denver.

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The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
  • Jan. 15, Michigan
  • Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
  • Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
  • Jan. 29, Florida
  • Feb. 1, Maine (R)
  • Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
  • Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
  • Feb. 10, Maine (D)
  • Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
  • Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
  • Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
  • Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
  • Mar. 11, Mississippi
  • Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
  • Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
  • May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
  • May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
  • May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
  • May 27, Idaho (R)
  • Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
  • Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
  • Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
  • Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
  • Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
  • Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY

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