Hillary could be president

Ohio has turned out to be Hillary's New Hampshire. The race has turned on a dime. Hillary is now up in the popular vote count that includes FL and MI, 13,606,283 for Hillary to 13,568,983 for Obama.

The Prince of Darkness reports on how the stage was set for Ohio and Texas:

Assuming that Sen. Clinton at best would eke a victory in Ohio Tuesday to end her long losing streak, prominent Democrats were organizing a major private intervention. A posse of party leaders would plead with her to end her campaign and recognize Obama as the Democratic standard-bearer. To buttress this argument, several elite unelected super-delegates (including several previous Clinton supporters) were ready to come out for Obama. Those plans went on hold Tuesday night.

To avoid carnage at Denver, Democrats have been telling me for weeks that a majority of delegates would somehow align themselves behind whichever candidate has the momentum.
But who has the momentum? Clinton will claim it, particularly if she wins in Pennsylvania to give her every major state except Obama's Illinois. But Obama will point to his advantage in the number of states and delegates. A showdown in Denver may be unavoidable.

Every big state but Obama's Illinois! Marie Cocco writes this:

Clinton's stunning performance on Tuesday, particularly in Ohio, makes Obama's argument that superdelegates should automatically back the will of the voters -- and not use independent political judgment about who can best compete against Republican John McCain in November -- look like an awfully simplistic calculus.

In Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, North Dakota, Kansas and Alaska -- all states the Obama forces point to with pride as evidence of an emerging "50-state strategy" -- no Democrat has won the general election since 1964.

So how has Obama fared in those states that are the crucial building blocks of a Democratic general election strategy? He's won his home state of Illinois, plus Wisconsin, Washington and Minnesota. Together, these states account for 51 electoral votes. Clinton has won her home state of New York, as well as California, New Jersey and Michigan, representing a total of 118 electoral votes. This sum deliberately leaves out Ohio and Florida, which will be hotly contested in the fall.

And Hillary won them both. They are the battlegrounds of battlegrounds for the past two presidential elections, elections that have been very close. The elections were close nationwide, and the battleground states were close because they mirror the composition of the whole country.

Let's take a look at the exit poll data from the last presidential election:

• In 2004, both states were at the national average of the female proportion of the vote: 54% of the electorate was female in Florida (53% in OH)
• Both electorates had an about average percentage of black voters: the FL electorate was 12% black (15% in OH), and nationally it was 11%
• The states added together had an average number of Hispanics: in FL 15% of the electorate was Latino (3% in OH), while it was 8% nationally
• Both states were about average for lower-income voters: FL 46% earned less than 50 grand a year (48% in OH), and it was 45% nationally
• Finally, in FL 57% did not graduate from college (63% in OH), and it was 58% nationally

You can see that these states are bellwethers for a reason. Winning Ohio by double-digits adds immensely to Clinton's moral argument, as winning Florida did not as much, since turnout was dampened from lack of campaigning.

One final point. Jerome Armstrong writes: "I agree ... that Obama has to win in PA, but I don't think he will. It's also true that Clinton has to win in PA, and she probably will." But PA is at a different stage of the race. I think part of the Ohio result--not all of it to be sure, but part--is the New Hampshire effect. That is to say, after Iowa voters in NH took a second look, and they thought, "We don't want to end this thing at this point." They didn't seal the nomination for Obama on forth down, but they punted. This is exactly what I thought might happen, and what I wrote back on Dec. 2 (seems like ages ago). It's the Democrats year, and we don't want to blow it on someone who's untested, so lets keep the process going. That is a different sentiment from, "I want Hillary to be president." Democrats in OH struggled with this. The man behind me in the voting line said he still was unsure who he was going to vote for when he got in the booth (which was in 90 seconds)!!! He wanted Hillary, but he thought Barack might be the best candidate, but he really liked Bill... The point is, PA is at a different spot in the calendar, and Hillary will not benefit from the "let's keep the process going and not end it right here" sentiment.