Thompson voters redux

I appreciate this fascinating comment on my last post:

As a long time member of Thompson blogs and sites I can promise you very few 'Fredheads' will be going to Huckabee! And why should they? Huck's made it very clear how he feels about Fred and Rollins has been down right nasty towards Fred. Huckabee's push polling of Fred in SC doesn't help him either.

I can tell you that from the blogs and the postings I have seen that Mitt has the lion's share of support, but it’s a very reluctant support I assure you.

Steve Dinan reports the same thing. Taegan Goddard reports this: "Since Fred Thompson exited the race, McCain is up 5, Romney is up 9, Giuliani is down 2 and Huckabee is flat." Seems like Romney's benefiting, though it's tough to say so early. Jay Cost thinks the impact on Florida might be marginal only.

I can see Thompson's voters going for Mitt, albeit reluctantly. They are both conservatives in the traditional mold. It's also easy to suppose that for a lot of them Mitt is less offensive that the Huckster.

Robert Novak and this blog makes the point that Thompson's exit is bad timing for the Huckster, who could move in and capture some of Thompson's voters, but can't because he's out of cash.

Thompson hasn't endorsed anyone yet. He was an informal adviser to McCain before he ran. He endorsed McCain against W. in 2000 and might do so again.

If Romney wins Florida it will be huge for him and back for the Huckster. Huckabee has to hope that McCain wins instead.

Michael Brendan Dougherty has this on Huckabee:

Even if Huckabee fails to capture the nomination, he may still effect significant change in the GOP coalition. In 2004, Republicans nabbed three out of four white evangelical votes. Karl Rove credited them with Bush’s re-election. But just as these voters demonstrated their power, their leadership was disappearing. James Kennedy and Jerry Falwell have passed away; others like James Dobson are on their way out of public ministry. Carter believes Huckabee can easily fill the void of evangelical leadership, but he warns that Republicans shouldn’t expect another compliant pastor who will shepherd the masses to the polls then otherwise leave them alone. “Because Huckabee doesn’t come from the establishment, he doesn’t owe them any favors. He has the potential to lead a new movement—and not just evangelicals alone.”

If the affable preacher consolidates his influence over the largest bloc of voters in the GOP, he’ll have the whip hand in the Republican coalition. No wonder the establishment is wincing.