Thompson got 13% in Iowa. A large majority of his voters (nearly 10%) were "very conservative." Romney beat Thompson by 12 points, but it would have been a near-tie between them if only "very conservative" voters counted. He got 1% in NH and 4% in Michigan. In SC he got 16%. Nearly half of that was "very conservative" voters, who are a third of the whole electorate.
The other thing that strikes me is the electability perception. For both Thompson and Huckabee, of the people who voted for them, nearly 9 out of 10 thought that their candidate was the best general-election candidate.
The media goes ga-ga about the Republicans nominating McCain as such a great maneuver for winning in November, but only 7 out of 10 of his own supporters in SC thought so. Do they know something the media doesn't?
When the positions of two opposing candidates are similar, the personalities and experiences they have become more important. McCain is old--he'll be 72 in August. When I saw him on TV touring a factory in SC, I thought he looked like an elderly man. Huckabee has the likability factor, which is a potent general election asset, as long as he can tone-down the religious stuff and triangulate his positions.
All this is interesting, but it doesn't tell us where the Thompson voters are going. I think they'll be split between Romney and Huckabee, with an edge to Huckabee. He's a southern politician like Thompson, his voters think he can win, and he's (slightly) more successfully cultivated the conservative vote than Romney.
This question is so important, it seems to me, because I think it will determine the Republican nominee.
1/24/08
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The Schedule
- Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
- Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
- Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
- Jan. 8, New Hampshire
- Jan. 15, Michigan
- Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
- Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
- Jan. 29, Florida
- Feb. 1, Maine (R)
- Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
- Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
- Feb. 10, Maine (D)
- Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
- Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
- Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
- Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
- Mar. 11, Mississippi
- Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
- Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
- May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
- May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
- May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
- May 27, Idaho (R)
- Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
- Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
- Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
- Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
- Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
- Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
- Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY
1 comment:
As a long time member of Thompson blogs and sites I can promise you very few 'Fredheads' will be going to Huckabee! And why should they? Huck's made it very clear how he feels about Fred and Rollins has been down right nasty towards Fred. Huckabee's push polling of Fred in SC doesn't help him either. And please no one respond to me about how Huckabee couldn’t do anything because of McCain-Feingold, which is just code for it’s Fred’s own fault he is being smeared and there is nothing we could do my hands were tied, hmmm sounds like to me an answer worthy of Poncus Pilot himself, ‘do as you will I wash my hands of it.’
No Huck and his minions have burned that bridge.
I can tell you that from the blogs and the postings I have seen that Mitt has the lion's share of support, but it’s a very reluctant support I assure you.
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