Looking back at Iowa, forward to NH

The youngest candidate won on both sides in the Iowa caucuses. Obama and Huckabee offered platforms of change within their respective parties. A quote from Fred Thompson in tonight's debate sums it up: "We had some folks vote in Iowa, and now everyone suddenly comes out talkin' about change."

Huckabee calmly handled a heckler today. He continues to embrace the change mantle. This from the Politico:

“I think the Republican Party needs some repair,” Huckabee said on “Fox News Sunday.”

During back-to-back interviews on Fox and ABC's "This Week," this year’s Cinderella candidate complained that the Bush administration ignored recommendations by Pentagon brass to send more troops to Iraq after the initial invasion.

He also questioned the administration’s embrace of harsh interrogation methods. And he took a veiled shot at the White House for offering overly rosy economic assessments after unemployment rose last month.

In addition, Huckabee suggested Bush is in bed with the tax lobby in Washington. “His commission [to reform the tax code] was essentially a group of tax lobbyists,” the former governor declared in response to a question about his support for a national sales tax — a sales tax the president’s commission condemned.

Here's what I find noteworthy in the exit polls from Iowa. Here's the "most important issue" percentages for Huckabee, Romney and McCain (% of the total, the marginals are in parentheses):

Immigration (33) -- Iraq War (17) --Economy (36)

Huckabee: 36--33--34
Romney: 30--17--25
McCain: 4--25--11

Romney voters thought domestic issues were more important than Iraq. McCain voters were the opposite. Huckabee voters were even between them.

McCain won NH in 2000. But it's a different era now, and the state has different demographics. From the Dallas Morning News:

New Hampshire, once among the reddest states in the country, has undergone an elephantine demographic shift since its last hotly contested presidential primary, with an influx of new voters that could turn the outcome of both races Tuesday.

The Granite State gained 207,000 new residents between 2001 and 2005 – including about 90,000 who moved over the border from Massachusetts, according to a recent report by the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute. During the same period, 188,000 people left the state.

The turnover, along with anti-war feelings, has muddied the small state's political tableau. Democrats swept statewide elections in 2006, winning control of the Legislature and governor's office for the first time since 1911.

[...]

"New Hampshire loves comeback stories," said Mr. Keough, a former gubernatorial candidate.

Mr. McCain, 71, polls best among GOP voters who have lived in the state longer than 20 years, according to a recent Boston Globe poll. Mr. Romney was favored, 36 percent to 27 percent, among Republicans who have been in the state fewer than 10 years.

On the Democratic side, 58% of Iowan caucus-goers were married, 42% unmarried. The 3 top candidates were tied with married voters, but Obama cleaned everyone's clock with the unmarried caucus-goers; they're what propelled him to victory. He won 43% of them, to only 24% for Hillary and 17% for Edwards. Part of this is youth--Obama won 57% of voters age 17-29, and 42% of those 30-44. Younger voters are of course less likely to be married. They're also more likely to be more liberal, and Obama cleaned the other candidate's clock amongst self-identified liberals.

Clinton's campaign has now acknowledged that it will lose South Carolina. They could just be lowering expectations, as the polls are running even. But if black voters turn to Obama, then Hillary's toast, since they are expected to be around half of the voters in that primary. New Hampshire is thus very, very important for Hillary. After NH there's Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina, and Florida, and then Super-Duper Tuesday. Michigan is no contest on the Democratic side, as Obama and Edwards are not on the ballot there, and the DNC stripped the state of all its delegates. Hillary had an 8-point lead in Nevada around Christmas, and she still maintains a big lead in Florida. There's not a whole lot of time before Super-Duper Tuesday. The Obama enthusiasm could still be rolling by then, especially if he wins NH.