Can McCain win NH and the nomination?

McCain's campaign was hovering around 25% in NH until the second week of June when it started a 3-month decline. This was just when the immigration bill was being considered by Congress. Immigration is, as I've posted on before, a hot topic in NH despite the state not having many illegal immigrants. But as that issue came out of the spotlight, McCain's polls in NH gradually improved to above where he was at the beginning of the summer. He's now in a statistical tie with Romney.

If John McCain does not win in NH tomorrow, his campaign will be over. But if he does win, could he win the Republican nomination?

The Republican race breaks down like this. There are three viable conservative candidates (Huckabee, Romney, Thompson) and two more liberal candidates (McCain, Giuliani). I've already posted on the impossibility of Giuliani winning the nomination. His poll numbers all along have been artificially high; since he hasn't challenged anyone for votes yet, no one has stepped up to attack him. Once (or if) that happens, Giuliani's numbers will fall even more precipitously than they already have. There is so much material for negative ads in Giuliani's background, he's almost smart in waiting out Iowa and NH rather than delving in the trenches and ending his campaign early.

On the conservative side, Thompson can't win due to an unattractive candidate. This leaves Huckabee and Romney.

And McCain. Could he go all the way?

In 2000, McCain won the following states before his campaign ended March 9: NH, Arizona, Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts, RI, Vermont. NH was an open primary, Arizona was semi-closed but of course was McCain's home state. The battleground of Michigan was an open primary, and McCain won it on the votes of independents despite losing 3-1 amongst Republicans. The rest of the states McCain won were: Connecticut and Rhode Island were closed, Massachusetts and Vermont were open. The only closed primaries McCain won were from the liberal Northeast.

This previous experience causes me to think that it's an inside-the-beltway fantasy that McCain could get the Republican nomination. Right now the conservative vote is being split three ways, and even four, adding in Ron Paul. Those four candidates got 82% in Iowa. They currently get a majority of the vote in NH. The point is, that there are more candidates running as conservatives and two as more liberal, which means that, though the conservative vote is a greater percentage, it is being split by more candidates who get less a share of the pie each. In NH in 2000, the candidates running as conservatives (Bush, Steve Forbes, Alan Keyes) got more votes combined than McCain.

Iowa and NH do not pick presidents. Rather, they just narrow the field for the other states to make their selection from. That's what's happening right now on the Republican side. Once the winnowing process takes place, it'll be a two or three way contest (Huckabee, Romney/McCain, Giuliani). At that point the more liberal candidate(s) will take a hit, just as happened to McCain in 2000. When conservatives are united behind one candidate, no matter how much they prefer him or would rather have a different conservative candidate, then the opposing candidate like McCain or Giuliani don't stand a chance.

Right now it is a Romney--Huckabee race. A Giuliani win in NH knocks Romney out, and he can't come back unless he wins a (currently narrowly contested) Michigan primary. The marriage of convenience between Huckabee and McCain favors both candidates, but ultimately it's Huckabee who would prevail if they were the last two candidates standing.