Huckabee up in Iowa

Did not expect this to come this soon! Since the end of August this blog has pushed the potential of the Huckster, and he just took a huge step with his lead in Iowa in a Rasmussen poll. A pro-Huckster blog says: "Forty-eight percent (48%) of Evangelical Christians support Hucakbee. That’s more than all the other candidates combined. Romney attracts 16% of the Evangelical vote." NPR's blog writes that even Huckabee's campaign seemed taken aback by the success. A recent Florida poll has Huckabee second to Giuliani.

The Huckster needs cash. This is a problem for populist candidates, and the Huckster is no Wall Street Journal Republican, as we've pointed out here. Populist candidates are the ones hurt most by campaign finance laws. Finding one rich person to finance a populist campaign is not an option. By limiting the money individuals can give, it perversely only helps the candidates who favor the rich--they bundle contributions from their rich friends to raise lots of cash.

Candidates who are media darlings also can raise money much more easily, since they give off an appearance of success to donors. I'm thinking of course of McCain and Giuliani. But giving money to Giuliani is a waste, since he can't win the nomination. Giuliani is up in the political prediction market in the last week, up 1.9 points. Huckabee is down .5 points. This is ridiculous. Not that I'm predicting a Huckabee victory; I think it will probably be Romney. But Huckabee has more of a chance than Giuliani, and for the markets to give Giuliani a 46.8% chance and the Huckster a 7.8% chance is silly odds.