Huckabee and strategy

A good post over at Yahoo makes the point that Huckabee might be doing Romney a favor by making Iowa so competitive--if Romney wins Iowa, it'll be a huge win rather than an expected one. An expected win is no good. Harkin in 1992, or even Tsongas in NH that year did not profit from Iowa and NH wins due to the expectations game.

Another note on Huckabee at the debate. I first noticed at the values voter debate the amazing ability of the Huckster to have an internal clock inside him for answer the questions. He's never battling the moderator for more time. In the colloquy on immigration between Giuliani and Romney, Giuliani had one too many replies and got booed by the crowd. In the question on signing a federal abortion ban, Romney got testy with Cooper pressing him for an answer. The Huckster makes a contrast with this.

By staying within the time limit, you look like a nice guy. The problem is that people aren't just looking for a nice guy as president. Ronald Reagan asserting that it's his microphone in 1980 was a positive moment. Bob Dole's tearfulness after his wife's convention speech was a negative.

However, a number of factors are involved in these examples. There's likability, niceness, assertiveness, and sincerity. Likability and sincerity can only help you. Niceness and assertiveness are appropriate only in some circumstances. I was impressed in the last debate with Huckabee's ability to mix these attributes together well--he displayed passion on the immigration question in responding to Romney. But he doesn't go over his time. It's as if he's comfortable being a minor candidate. He's not anymore--he was in the middle of the stage, next to Romney. But he does not give off an aura of eagerness to self-promote, which contrasts to Romney. The sense of humor also contrasts with Romney. If I were Romney, I'd hit hard on the competence factor--I think there's an opening there. Huckabee's running as a kind of national self-help coach.

This is a Romney vs. Huckabee race. Everyone else is secondary.