Name recognition and the candidates

As any student of American politics knows, name-recognition is a big political asset in a campaign. If nobody knows your name, you have to spend a lot of money on advertising to get your name out there.

The reason is that there are some people who go into a voting booth and vote for the name that seems familiar. To people who follow politics regularly, this can seem incredible. But it's true. I've done it before. When you are in the voting booth, it is hard to admit to yourself that you are ignorant and should not be voting at all. So you convince yourself that you are making an educated choice by voting for the name that seems more familiar.

But does this hold for the top of the ticket? Everyone has to know the names of presidential candidates by the time the general election rolls around. It's probably true that this is attenuated, but it is also definitely still present even in the high-profile presidential race. FDR knew it was.

There is another factor in name-recognition, and that is being comfortable with the name you are picking. If you are named Zoe Weirdo it is harder to get elected. Like every negative, of course, you can turn your name into a positive. By campaigning and getting people to have good associations with your strange name you can boost your name-recognition. But the degree to which this is under a candidate's control is likewise attenuated at the presidential level.

A big criterion for evaluating presidential campaigning is whether the candidate "looks presidential." Can people envision the candidate as their president? This is maddeningly superficial, but there's no way around it. 2004 was the first time since the advent of television debates between the presidential candidates that the taller candidate has not won the general election. If you are short and dumpy it's harder to win. If you look and talk like Fred Thompson and are a popular actor, it's a huge edge.

In light of my previous dumping on Fred Thompson's chances, the question arises, how far will appearances and name-recognition take you? Since it is still early yet, the important question at this point is how much the poll results is just a function of name-recognition, and therefore subject to quick change as people get a little more exposure to the candidates and are forced to make up their mind because the election is next Tuesday.

There's some interesting stories on these topics. Gallup has a poll which gives strong evidence that on the Democratic side, Hillary's lead is not due to superior name-recognition. While 94% of Democrats are familiar with Hillary, 85% are familiar with Edwards and 84% with Obama. As voters become more familiar with Edwards and Obama, Clinton's lead will not necessarily shrink.

On the Republican side, the recognition of major candidates Giuliani/McCain/Romney/Thompson is 91/87/64/56. When the lack of familiarity with all of the candidates is factored in, Giuliani's lead disappears. It goes to Thompson. This makes for a volatile race, especially if, as I suspect, actual campaigning will make the bloom come off the rose for Thompson's candidacy.

The last element is the funny-name-factor. This CBS poll asked people if the name "Barack Obama" would be an impediment to him getting elected. Here's the poll's results:

With his mixed-race ethnicity, foreign-sounding name and international background, Obama may have additional hurdles to clear with some voters. A sizable minority of voters thinks Obama’s name may work against him. 38% think that many people would have a problem voting for Obama because of his name. 58% think that won’t be a problem. Democratic primary voters are similar.

And when asked early in the questionnaire what comes to mind when they hear the name Obama other than running for president, one in 10 voters mention his name -- that it is a foreign-sounding name, or that it reminds them of Osama bin Laden or terrorism. 9% mention that he is a Senator, and 6% say that he is African American.

I remember watching Morning Edition many months ago when a caller asked the question, "Do you really think American's are going to vote for a person named 'Barack Obama' for president?" I think it is clear that it is an extra hurdle for his campaign.

Here's some interesting commentary on all this from Pollster.com.