7/27/07

Clinton up, Obama down














Clinton up slightly and Obama down slightly this month, according to Intrade...

Here's the trends for betting on the Democratic presidential nominee this year, from Intrade.

One the first picture, I point to the rise amongst betters in the expected probability that Clinton and Obama could win the nomination after the first-quarter fund-raising numbers came out.

The second picture points out how the release of the second-quarter numbers caused a drop for Clinton and rise for Obama.

Finally, the third picture points to what's happened most recently. Clinton has rallied slightly and Obama dropped slightly.

Why has this happened? What's been going on in the middle of July to make Clinton a marginally better bet to win the nomination?

Well, first of all, Bill Clinton started campaigning for Hillary. That's seems to have made the difference. Also, Barack Obama was bogged down by attacks Mitt Romney made regarding his position on sex ed for kindergarteners.
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The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
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