Giuliani's support is unlike that of any Republican nominee in at least a generation. He fares better with moderates than conservatives, with more secular voters than more religious ones, and with younger people than older ones. He draws slightly more support from women than men. That's left what GOP strategist Scott Reed calls "a void" for a more traditional and conservative contender, especially in states with early contests such as Iowa and South Carolina, where evangelical Christians are a political force. Former Tennessee senator and actor Fred Thompson, plotting a late entry into the campaign, sees an opening there.
It's always struck me as an inside-the-beltway fantasy that John McCain could win the Republican nomination for president, and so I haven't been surprised by his campaign floundering (and continuing to do so). Giuliani's rise has surprised me, but these numbers show huge signs of weakness. Fred Thomson certainly seems like he will be a much stronger candidate. Thomson has that intangible presidential gravitas in his bearing--something which John Edwards lacks, for example--which combined with a more traditional conservative profile will be a potent force in Republican primaries.
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