This was probably the most important debate, as long as there's no major fumbles in the next two (as there was not in this one). The first thing of note is that the debate was indeed a draw, as the commentators have stated. And the reason is that the middle of the debate was even, and was bookended by two bad moments for each candidate--Obama looked so sharp at the beginning while McCain was embarrassingly bad, and Obama was hammered by McCain at the end of the debate.
So if voters are making up their mind based on actually watching the thing, it really matters whether you tuned in ten minutes late and watched until the end, or whether you caught the beginning of the debate and broke off without seeing the end. Like the very first TV debate between Nixon and Kennedy (which resulted in different winners depending on whether people listened to the debate or watched it on TV), these two scenarios would result in vastly different impressions of who won.
If you watched the whole thing, you thought it was a draw. I agree with conventional wisdom that a draw favors Obama. I think Obama won. He proved he can be president. The VP debate this week will validate Obama's choice of Biden, humilitate McCain's choice of Palin, and last Friday's debate will be but a memory.
SNL lampooned McCain the night after the debate for his gimmicks. McCain can get away with gimmicks because he is such a substantive candidate, has a long record. He has capital to spend on this score, and I think he should spend it. I thought he should have opposed the bailout--that would have been a really substantive way to shake up the race, instead of a gimmicky way, but he decided to play it safe. That won't win him the election. The bailout will probably pass today, in which case McCain could have his cake and eat it too--posturing in a popular way (no one likes the bailout) while not taking the blame for it not passing. Of course, would it have passed if he opposed it? Perhaps not. And what the bailout is doing is delaying the (inevitable) economic pain that has to come sooner or later. You don't run for president nowadays talking about how short-term pain is good. You run by promising everyone the world.
McCain really came into his own last night. He doesn't think much of Obama, but managed to conceal his contempt. He started out so flat, it was just terrible. But he gained his footing when he started talking with passion about earmarks. That passion never left him. It made him seem really genuine, in contrast to his gimmicky campaign. If Palin has any chance against Biden it's to seem genuine as opposed to Biden's slick Washington mountebank demeanor.
But Obama won the debate. His flubs at the end were even excusable, I thought. McCain was snearing in his face, and Obama can seem like he has a legit beef that his positions are misrepresented. His line the next day was a powerful one: "John McCain had a lot to say about me in the debate, and not much at all to say about you. He never even mentioned 'the middle class' once."
Likewise, McCain's flubs at the beginning were excusable, in the sense that he was really sharp the whole rest of the debate, which is tough for a 72-year-old in the bright light standing for 90 minutes.
Obama won because he did exactly what he had to do. Unlike McCain, Obama can't resort to gimmicks. He can't go after McCain passionately. He can't get down and dirty. The reason is the bubba vote--a young black upstart attacking an American hero would only produce backlash. He had to show that he's up for the job, presidential. He had to get people comfortable with him as a leader. He did that.
I think he should have mentioned his Christianity and how it guides him in life. Why doesn't he do this? America doesn't elect secular candidates, or at least hasn't yet. Change might be around the horizon, but why risk it? Obama could have boxed in McCain, who would sound too much like Bush with his belligerent attitude to every major foreign policy problem, mixing in any God-speak. Obama's married with two kids, McCain ruthlessly cheated on and then divorced his wife, who was faithful to him while he was a POW and remains faithful to him to this day, in order to wed a young heiress. But there's one reason why Obama can't do this: it conjures up Wright, and there's no way Obama wants that. He's better off with the whole thing being a forgotten piece of ancient history.
Neither candidate has much of a sense of humor, and McCain's jokes fell flat, but he did have two moments when he really flummoxed Obama with humor--the line about not being able to hear Obama, and the imaginery sit-down with Ahmadinejad.
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