It's not as bad as you think for McCain

I know it's an overstatement. But John McCain's attempt to shake up the race, which I praised to the skies yesterday, has failed (despite Fox's reporting that McCain's #s are up as a result of the suspension). There's no deal on the bailout. McCain didn't show decisive leadership, a meeting with the pres and the two pres wannabes devolved into a shouting match, and McCain blinked on the debate. So the debate's going to happen. My wife's reaction was to roll her eyes and condemn McCain--I think that's telling.

Axelrod is saying that McCain exploited the economy for political purposes, and the Huckster is saying that McCain's move was a "Big mistake...You can't just say, 'World, stop for a moment. I'm going to cancel everything.'" The Democratic line is that McCain is "injecting presidential politics" into the issue. It's appealing, no matter Rush Limbaugh's rants about Obama's failure at the meeting with Bush, McCain and co.

So McCain is skulking with his tail between his legs to the debate, and Obama has an edge going in. Or does he? I still firmly believe that McCain has to continually shake up the race. There are risks to every move of this type he makes, but he doesn't have a choice.

And the proofs still in the pudding. What's going to happen tonight? Everything is riding on it. The whole presidency. More people will watch this debate than the other two. There's enormous anticipation, and it comes right smack dab in the middle of an economic crisis.

What's the expectations game for McCain? I always thought that McCain would debate, and never considered that he would back out. "He's playing the expectations game," I thought. If he goes unwillingly to the debate, the expectations will be lower. And there's an argument here. If McCain hadn't pulled this stunt, what would everyone be talking about? I'll tell you: they'll be talking about the debate on foreign policy, and how that's McCain's specialty, and how he should blow Obama out of the water, and yet, wow, isn't it kind of irrelevant to what is the pressing concern right now? That's what the chatterheads would say. Instead, the talking points are different. Still not favorable to McCain, but doesn't it take some of the pressure off of him? There is a setup for McCain to do well. He could still lose, or he could still win with the pundits and lose with the people, that's very possible. But at least the setup isn't: an out-of-touch rich Washington insider gets ready to debate foreign policy, ignoring the biggest financial crisis of a generation.

You have to look at the opportunity cost with campaign moves like this.