McCain holding his own

The buzz is the same in the presidential race as it was at the end of the Obama's trip--McCain is hanging around, and might "back into" the White House like he backed into the nomination. The polls are tight at a time when you would expect Obama to be cleaning McCain's clock.

Why is this? Ever since McCain put Steve Schmidt in charge, his campaign has been humming along. I don't know if it's a coincidence. I can not emphasize enough the brilliance of the Paris Hilton ad. That is the gift that keeps on giving, as people make fun of it and of Paris. It's brilliant because it takes one of Obama's strongest points--that he inspires people, and that people turn out to hear him speak (unlike McCain)--into a negative. A negative! Politics is not fair. Something only has to be semi-plausible to stick.

McCain sounded great at Sturgis, shouting into a microphone that Obama wants us to "inflate our tires" as a response to the gas crisis. Great stuff. Puts Obama on the defensive. Obama's response cited "experts." Playing into McCain's hand! Makes him seem like a schoolmarm wagging his finger at us slightly. McCain should continue to portray Obama as Carter.

The Obama team needs to read or re-read Drew Westin's book. Obama should have used the tire-inflating spat to connect with real people who are suffering--inflate your tires, every little bit helps, etc. Instead he cites experts.

Perhaps the Obama team did go back to Westin's book, which makes the seemingly obvious point that when you do an attack ad, put an unflattering picture of your opponent on it. In the ad below, Obama's crew finally gets that elementary point down. They didn't in this earlier ad. Both of these are playing in the Pittsburgh market. Obama needs to work Appalachia, that's for sure. McCain at Sturgis plays a heck of a lot better than any of Obama's posing.

McCain's ad below is brilliant. I think he should embrace the Maverick image and screw the Republican base. Let them wallow in their skepticism--they have nowhere else to go. The Republican brand is in the tank, and the convential wisdom is that McCain is the best candidate the Republicans could have fielded because he is such a maverick. I'm extremely skeptical of this logic. I'm skeptical of the median-voter theory, too. But this year is different. McCain should go with what he's got. He's never going to be the most popular Republican. But perhaps he can play a game of hide the weiner--"you know where he stands," just like Bush in '04; he's a different kind of Republican, totally unlike Bush.

The veepstakes are high-stakes. Obama dodged a bullet with Edwards.

Remember with these polls, though, that they're meaningless. Interesting, a reflection of the race at this point, but totally and completely lacking all predictive value for November.