The case for a Southerner

John A. Tures from LaGrange College makes the point today that the presidential nominees should pick running-mates from the South. This means Huckabee or Thompson for McCain, and Webb or Edwards for Obama.

He writes:

My research shows that when a Southerner is on the ticket, the pair wins 63.7 percent of the time. That winning percentage drops down to a 41.2 percent likelihood of victory if no Southerner is on the ballot for the party.

The findings show improvements for both parties. The Democratic Party has put a Southerner on the ticket 16 times, with 9 victories to show for it. That's more than twice as good as their 12 elections with no Southerner listed on the ballot. Only three won in those cases: FDR in 1940, and Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916. Of course, Wilson was born in Staunton, Virginia, long before he became New Jersey's Governor, further cementing the party's ties to a successful Southern strategy.

The results are also impressive for the Grand Old Party. Since 1896, Republicans won half of their races where a Southerner was not on the ballot (going a dismal 4 for 11 between 1932 and 1976). When a Southerner made the ticket, the GOP prevailed 83.3 percent of the time, taking five of six races. The only GOP ticket to lose involved George Herbert Walker Bush, who was a New England Republican transplanted to Texas.

This is worth thinking about. The choice of running mate really does matter. It solidifies or challenges the image of a candidate. I posted five days ago that "Romney would be perfect for McCain," but I should have added that this is not what I think he needs to do to win. It is a safe choice, a solid choice. Many positives and few negatives. Normally that would cement the deal, but now is not a normal time, but rather a toxic climate for Republicans, not excluding McCain. McCain needs a big-time play. If he's going to win it, it's going to be 1948, not 1972. Only Obama has the possibility of a 1964. So McCain needs to be in risk-taking mode, starting with the running-mate.

Webb on the ticket, as I've argued since February, is perfect for Obama. Would Huckabee be the right risk for McCain? I tend to think so, but a comment on a previous post of mine claimed that Alaska Gov Sarah Palin will get the nod. I think that's probably more likely than Huckabee, who's despised by the Republican establishment. As the folks at 2008Central argued in a recent podcast, McCain needs to challenge the perceptions of himself. That's exactly right, because he cannot coast to victory. Obama can, but McCain can't. Kerry tried to coast to victory in 2004 and it almost worked. He had a southerner on the ticket, too. This time around the climate is much more demoralizing for the GOP. This doesn't mean that Obama shouldn't pick a Southerner though...