Obama's Comments Redux

According to a Quinnipiac poll today, Hillary has a 6-point edge on Obama. That's a lot closer than the 20-margin I mentioned yesterday; this one shows that she's slowing his ascent in PA.

A reader commented on yesterday's post about Obama's statement being completely true, and not condescending. All this could be perfectly true, but this blog has been devoted to Henry Adams' quip, "practical politics is the art of ignoring facts." If candidates came out and said what they thought was true, they'd be toast.

Take Huckabee, for instance. His base would rally around him every time he would say something that was aimed at them, but by doing this too much he boxed himself in as a factional candidate lacking broader appeal. So while his base thinks what he says is totally true, it is still a mistake for him to say it.

Obama's statements were very harmful to his candidacy and will haunt him for some time now. The reason is the context.

Obama exudes the air of a smart Harvard-trained thinker. Now that's certainly a liability with a whole lot of voters. It is not a liability at all for the voters Obama has so far attracted, namely well-educated higher-income voters. But for lower-class voters a different style is attractive--President Bush's style. Bush beat Kerry because of voters without college degrees voting for him, and because he did well enough with low-income voters to pull out a narrow victory. Bush's style was mocked, but it was electorally effective.

Taking Obama's demographic appeal and style into account, we can see that he needs to win voters who are naturally more skeptical of him, by appealing to them through his campaign. A friend mentioned to me: "Obama smokes Marlboro Reds, for crying out loud! He should take that back up!" He also said, "Obama's a great basketball player--he should be out there playing basketball with people." I'd endorse both these ideas. Smoking is frowned upon in modern-day America not primarily because it is a health issue, but because it is a class issue. The upper classes frown on the dirty habits of the lower classes. What better way to show you're a regular guy than start smoking again? Obama should do it, the anguished cries of "What an example for our children! Humph!" being an opportunity for a Sister Souljah moment, and perhaps a chance to portray Hillary for the schoolmarm she is. Basketball too--at least, it's better than windsurfing, which nobody can really identify with.

Given that Obama needs to broaden his base to just the type of voter he was speaking about in him comments, his description of them is completely condescending. He's portraying their voting decisions as riddled with bitterness, their issue concerns a result of frustrations of being on the losing end of the market. If you are going to appeal to people by talking about their problems, you'd better make sure they identify with you as one of them. Otherwise it's just somebody coming in from the outside telling you you're all screwed up, and they've got the fix. Not very appealing.