Democrat advantage in the general

On Meet the Press Sunday, Howard Dean stated that he wanted the nomination battle ended by June. He stated that it takes about 3 months to stitch things back together. July-August-September, that's what the Dems need to come into the November election unified against the Republicans. "The only thing that's going to beat us is if we aren't unified," Dean said. That argument is persuasive--this is the Dem's year, but they'll be seriously hurt if this goes to the convention at the end of August. The reason the convention is so late is to jigger with campaign-finance rules that cut off fundraising when the candidate is officially nominated (if the party accepts the $70 million government handout, and both parties do). This could come back to haunt the Dems if it does go to the convention. Then McCain has a fighting chance. The Dems need time to shine the bright spotlight on McCain. McCain will wilt in that light. No doubts there. He's got a super-long record, and he will be hit hard by the Dems. But they need time. I had a fascinating conversation with a friend who is politically attuned this weekend, and he said that the key for the Dems in the general is to look like the nice guy/gal. If they can portray McCain as mean, then it's all over for McCain.

So how's the campaign looking? "It's essentially pretty much a tie" right now, Dean said. The superdelegates want to wait things out. They are simply in no position to tell Hillary to leave the race.

Now that Hillary's security-blanket Mark Penn finally got the ax, Bill Clinton is serving as Hillary's de facto chief strategist.

Only primaries are left. So Obama's advantage in caucuses is neutralized.

Fox News: "All seven remaining states on the primary calendar fall below the U.S. average for household income. The average in West Virginia is the second lowest in the country."

Obama is still likely to win if it comes down to superdelegates, according to a statistical model. But you don't need a statistical model, but just common sense: the superdelegates simply don't want to disillusion the new voters Obama appeals to, as well as black voters. So the lower-classes that are voting for Clinton will get the shaft. But they will come back and vote for the Democrat, if the Dems can make the case that McCain is just more of the same. The Dems have a great advantage in the general in that they can just attack a very unpopular president, with a bad economy and an unpopular war, which the Republican is identified with. Bush did this in 2000, attacking Clinton, even when Clinton was all that unpopular and the economy was better and Gore distanced himself from Clinton. The Dems will have a *much* easier time doing it with McCain.