3/27/08

The crucial stat

No, that's not a typo. PA is the crucial state right now, but the crucial stat is below:

From ABC News:

In a recent Gallup poll, almost 30 percent of Clinton supporters say they'd go for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., over Obama if Clinton loses the nomination; 19 percent of Obama supporters say the same.

Yikes. This is a rock and a hard place. Blacks are a crucial Dem constituency, voting for Kerry 9-1 in '04, and making up 20% of his voters. If they jump ship for a Hillary candidacy, this would be disastrous for the Dems in the general. I have been listening to these callers to C-Span bashing the Clintons and making just this threat. Not that the Clintons don't deserve it, after the ghettoization strategy in SC (though this was Bill off the reservation, not a calculated campaign tactic, if we believe the NYTimes).

Yet there could be even more white voters who would jump ship with an Obama candidacy.

Things change daily, but Clinton is suffering right now from her enhancement of her Bosnia trip. This is literally what killed Gore's candidacy in 2000. If Gore hadn't been caught in those petty lies which I don't even remember anymore, he would have been president. Hillary's fumble is in the same category. This kind of thing just reminds people why Obama is so attractive--change from Bush without having to go back to all the Clinton rehash.

I think the superdelegates are going to close their eyes and go with Obama, hoping that he'll bring the party together better than Hillary could.
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1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I understand the comment on Dem's for Clinton voting for McCain if she does not win the primary, I am leary in regard to this race
1.) Prejudice against a black man
2.) Prejudice against a woman

If Obama wins the Primary and it comes to the Pres ele day some voters wil vote for McCain

The same may happen with Hillary, tho I hope this does not happen with either Hillary or Obama, it could be, being a lot of people do not vote in the primarys will vote for McCain instead, I don't see Ron Paul having a chance, I believe he is on the primary ballot here in PA, but what I don't know is if I vote for Ron Paul would that make a differnce regarding the Republican nominee?
Or I would hope Ron Paul would switch to independent, I am really for Ron Paul but I will not vote for McCain

March 28, 2008 at 7:03 PM

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