Super Duper Tuesday first reactions

This is why I shouldn't make predictions. My dour expectations for Huckabee in the wake of what I thought was an effective argument by Romney have not panned out. In fact its the opposite. Romney has continued his favorite-son pattern, winning Massachusetts and Utah. Loosing the West Virginia convention was very hard for him. The story of the race on the Republican side has been Romney's inability to attract a following. He's just failed as a candidate. Outspending Huckabee 12 to 1 should have made more of a difference. Romney vowed to stay in in his speech: "We're going to take this all the way to the convention and win the White House."

Huckabee's winnings are very striking since he hasn't won since way back in Iowa. In Huckabee's speech tonight he also vowed to stay in until the end: "Until that magic number of 1,191 is won, there will be one guy answering the bell." There's only one more state in the South left to vote, and Huckabee doesn't do as well with evangelicals in the north. However, he could do well in Louisiana and Florida in four days.

The analysis given at this point is that people are voting for personalities, not issues. That seems to be true to some extent on both sides. However, the three-man race perhaps obscures the importance of issues on the Republican side.

On the Democratic side it is a slug-fest right now. Clinton and Obama won their home states. Obama had the momentum going into the contest, in large part because of favorable media reports. Here's Dick Morris:

The USA Today headline on Monday said it all: "Obama Erases Clinton Lead." The press on the day before Super Tuesday has been the best that Obama could hope for. In a race dominated by perception, you could not buy more favorable publicity than the published reports of his closing the gap with Hillary. He will also benefit from the companion articles in most papers showing that McCain enjoys a comfortable lead over Romney. With Independents able to vote in either party primary in half of the Super Tuesday states, this information may induce many anti-Hillary voters to back Obama rather than McCain as the most likely way to beat her. They may figure that McCain no longer needs their votes but that Obama needs them badly as he is now within striking distance of victory.

California is crucial, and the polls have just closed there.