State of the Democratic Race

Everything's a dead heat between Clinton and Obama, except that according to the polls Georgia and Illinois are going for Obama, and Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oklahoma, and Tennessee are going for Clinton.

The momentum is in Obama's favor, however. That could be big, as we've seen throughout this process. Huckabee had the momentum in the endgame in Iowa, Clinton had that weekend-before momentum in NH, McCain had momentum going into the tight Florida race. Polls only show a snapshot in time. They're wrong because people still haven't made up their minds yet.

Even if Hillary wins more states, it will still be a dead heat in delegates due to the proportionality rule. For example, she won Nevada but Obama actually won more delegates. For example, here's how California works:

Each of the 53 congressional districts will get from three to six delegates based upon the district's population and presidential voting in 2000 and 2004. The 241 district-level delegates will be allocated in proportion to the popular vote in that district to candidates receiving more than 15 percent.

This could favor Obama.

Nationally, Obama has an edge with Independents, and Hillary with Democrats.