The Republican race

Is it a race? McCain has 1016 delegates, and needs 1,191 to win. He proclaimed himself the nominee after Wisconsin. He's leading Huckabee in Texas by 12 points, which would give him 140 more delegates.

Still, there's a report from the LA Times that Romney still might rejoin the race. One of his sons said it was "possible." I always wondered why Romney said he "suspended" his campaign instead of "terminating" it. That is now explained--he thought there was a possibility that conservatives might deny McCain the nomination and there would be a brokered convention, in which he could come out on top as a compromise candidate. He endorsed McCain, which only confirmed what we've known all along which is that Huckabee was his real rival, and would position him to salve conservatives with his positions, and moderates with his endorsement, and straddle him in the middle as a compromise most Republicans could accept.

McCain seems like he's got it solidly in the bag now. His early victories in NH, SC and FL were just crucial, and he pulled off the kindling strategy that Romney was (rightly) attempting. The importance of the early contests have been affirmed and reaffirmed in this election. The two candidates in the final round for each party were the victors in Iowa and NH.

But things can change, and will change if somehow Huckabee started winning. Stranger things have happened. Because everyone thinks it's in the bag for McCain, wins for the Huckster in Texas or Ohio would be huge upsets. Questions would start to be raised about McCain, and fast. McCain would have to then win his 185 delegates from states that include a number of Huckabee-friendly areas like Mississippi and North Carolina. Pennsylvania (74 delegates in a closed primary) would be huge. It would be a close-run thing. A day is a lifetime in politics, and things can turn on a dime. They're not likely to, but they could change.

Then there's the NY Times story about the romance with the lobbyist Vicki Iseman. The paper has got a deserved beating for running the story because it was weak, including criticism by its own public editor. But if it turns out that McCain is not telling the truth about the Iseman matter, his presidential hopes are over, and we could be looking at a brokered convention on the Republican side.