2/10/08

Obama's big night

Obama won more than double Hillary's vote in Washington and Nebraska, and clobbered her by a mere 20-points in Louisiana.

The Politico writes:

[I]n what was a test of enthusiasm and organization, Obama showed an ability not just to win but also to rack up the landslide margins necessary to build a delegate lead. He seemed set to gain on Clinton by a margin of well over 40 delegates Saturday night, according to preliminary estimates. (A Democratic candidate needs 2,025 delegates to claim the nomination.)

Dick Morris argued after Super Tuesday that Hillary was able to tie Obama because of the Hispanic vote, allowing her to win NY heavily, NJ, Massachusetts, and Arizona. She won Bill's home state of Arkansas, Tennessee (gets a lot of Arkansas media), Oklahoma. But Obama won the rest. Texas is Hillary's firewall, with only 11% black voters and 32% Hispanic.

The Louisiana electorate (the only one we have exit polls on) was half black and only 4% Hispanic. The electorate was a female one by a 3-to-2 ratio. Hillary won white women big, and got a majority of white men, but lost heavily amongst blacks. The only age demographic she won was senior citizens. Obama continued to trounce her amongst better-educated voters.

Also from the Politico:

The Obama campaign on Friday released a strategy memo that made explicit an argument that the senator has increasingly been making on the stump. It was titled, “The Candidate Who Can Win: Barack Obama is beating Hillary Clinton with Independent voters and can beat John McCain in November.” The memo points to the general election as a reason for Democrats to support Obama now — encouraging activists to consider Electoral College math nine months ahead of time. “On Super Tuesday, in six red states that had primaries or caucuses for both Republicans and Democrats, Obama won and got more votes than the top two Republicans combined,” the memo said. “These states — Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Missouri, North Dakota and South Carolina — account for a total of 53 Electoral College votes.”

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The Schedule

  • Aug. 11, 2007 Iowa Straw Poll
  • Jan. 3, Iowa Caucuses
  • Jan. 5, Wyoming (R)
  • Jan. 8, New Hampshire
  • Jan. 15, Michigan
  • Jan. 19, Nevada, South Carolina (R)
  • Jan. 26, South Carolina (D)
  • Jan. 29, Florida
  • Feb. 1, Maine (R)
  • Feb. 5, SUPER DUPER TUESDAY, Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (D), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (D), Illinois, Kansas (D), Minnesota, Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (D), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (R)
  • Feb. 9, Kansas (R), Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska (D)
  • Feb. 10, Maine (D)
  • Feb. 12, DC (R), Maryland and Virginia
  • Feb. 19, Hawaii (D), Washington (R), Wisconsin
  • Mar. 4, Massachusetts, Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont
  • Mar. 8, Wyoming (D)
  • Mar. 11, Mississippi
  • Mar. 18, Colorado (R)
  • Apr. 22, Pennsylvania
  • May 6, Indiana, North Carolina
  • May 13, Nebraska (R), West Virginia (D)
  • May 20, Kentucky, Oregon
  • May 27, Idaho (R)
  • Jun. 3, Montana, New Mexico (R), South Dakota
  • Aug. 25-28, Democratic National Convention in Denver, CO
  • Sept. 1-4, Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN
  • Sep. 26, First debate at the University of Mississippi
  • Oct. 2, VP Debate at Washington University in St. Louis
  • Oct. 7, Second Debate at Belmont University in Nashville
  • Oct. 15, Third Debate at Hofstra University in NY

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