Voting in Florida Today

I have to confess that I believe now that I was wrong to post a week and a half ago dire predictions concerning Romney's skipping of SC right after his Michigan win. They have not come to pass; Romney's gotten away with it. The reason is that McCain won South Carolina. That was perfect for Romney. Instead of momentum for Huckabee, it set up a contest between Romney and McCain in Florida, one that Romney might win, though McCain has the momentum. But as Time points out that national security has receded and the economy come to the forefront, and this benefits Romney. See the video below.

Also Romney's spending the cash. From Marc Ambinder:

Mitt Romney's had an 8 to 1 television ad advantage in Florida... part of the reason why he's made the [race] competitive. Heck, most of the reason he's made the race competitive has been his ads. According to Neilsen, he's run 4,475 ads compared to John McCain's 470 through 1/22. McCain did not run a single ad until January; Romney ran more ads in September than McCain has run to date.

Having been proven wrong concerning the success of a campaign strategy I thought was too cute, I want to go double-or-nothing: if Romney wins Florida big, by 7-points or more, I predict he'll be the nominee. It seems right now like it'll be much tighter. The polls have Romney and McCain are within the margin of error of each other. But the polls were wrong on the Democratic side in Iowa and NH, and they might be wrong here too, though with the smaller, earlier states surprises are more likely perhaps.

A Romney win would be remarkable, beat all expectations, rain down the plaudits of the pundits, and propel him to the nomination, as it would be sustainable in a way a McCain win won't be. He's got more money than McCain and he's got conservative Republican street cred in a way McCain doesn't. If McCain wins, this race is still wide open. If Romney wins, bye bye Huckabee (except for a few Southern states perhaps).