Romney in the driver's seat

We are now in an unprecedented situation, with three different Republican candidates winning the first presidential contests.

New Hampshire was good to Romney. His Michigan numbers rocketed up in the aftermath, from 20% to the final tally of 39%. Huckabee's numbers dipped, from 19% to the final result of 16%.

Romney is now in a great spot thanks to Michigan. His money (thanks to personal wealth) is doing better than the other candidates. (We'll find out everyone's cash-on-hand numbers after Jan. 31.) His support is centered in the Republican base--the voters who can carry a candidate through to the finish.

McCain has the same problem he had in 2000, of not attracting these voters. Here's Chris Bowers:

In all three states, McCain has done better with voters who say they are either "dissatisfied" or "angry" with the Bush administration. He has lost those who are "satisfied" or "enthusiastic" with the Bush administration in all three states. If McCain has really made his comeback on the surge, then why are his voters so unhappy with Bush? Also, he has also virtually swept newspaper endorsements. Would McCain have any chance at all without the established media?

McCain won the Democrats and Independents in Michigan. That was a third of the total electorate. It's not enough to win; you need the Republican base.

Meanwhile the Huckster is not expanding on his base. He used the phrase "God's standards" when talking about gay marriage and the constitution. Another gaffe, on top of others. It makes you wonder if he really wants to be president. That is a real consideration--he might just be positioning himself as a public leader of evangelicals, and pushing up his speaking fee in the process. (He currently is listed in the $20,000-$40,000 range.) It's a much nicer life than being president.

Mitt Romney wants it. He's willing to do or say (and spend) whatever it takes to win. Giuliani doesn't. McCain does. You have to be an ego-maniac of Brobdingnagian proportions to really think you can be president.

Huckabee should consider giving a major speech on church and state. It worked for Romney.

Romney and McCain cleaned Huckabee's clock on senior citizens in Michigan. The gap was even wider in NH. These are the people with the highest turnout, so it should be a focus for his campaign. (Over 65 was 15% of the electorate in NH, and 16% in Michigan.)

McCain and Huckabee were in a tight contest in SC before Michigan. McCain's loss helps Huckabee in the short term, by weakening him in SC, but not in the long term. Romney's his real competitor, and now Romney is in the driver's seat, SC or no SC.