McCain's momentum

The Prince of Darkness was all McCain last night on Fox News. Is McCain now the front runner for the Republicans? The answer is yes. Can he win the nomination? Anything can happen, but my answer is still negative.

Take a look at the exit polls for SC. McCain won on the backs of people who thought abortion should be legal (28% of the electorate), go to church monthly or less (35% of the electorate), have a negative view of the Bush administration (30% of the electorate), don't think illegal immigrants should be deported (48% of the electorate), self-id as independents (18% of the electorate), and liberal or moderate (31% of the electorate), and who live in cities (8% of the electorate).

McCain's support Saturday was skewed by the fragmented Republican field. This from Smirking Chimp:

In 2000, McCain drew 237,888 votes in South Carolina, 42 percent of the total against 301,050 for Bush, 53 percent. In 2008, McCain drew only 143,224 votes in South Carolina, 33 percent of the total . . . the arithmetic of the divided field was inexorable. This time, he faced six opponents whose combined total beat his by two to one--a much more substantial margin than that of GWBush in 2000--but no one of whom got enough to beat him.

As soon as traditional, conservative Republican voters have a candidate (by default), McCain doesn't stand a chance. He needs the field to remain divided. Likewise, if it came down to the Huckster vs. Romney, the Huckster would be hard pressed to win. Hence the alliance between McCain and Huckabee.