Hillary's amazing win

Hillary Clinton's win was huge because it was so unexpected. The anecdotal evidence is that Hillary's tear-up changed minds. This would make sense--it happened too late to be picked up in the polls. The exit polls do not contradict this, pace Jay Cost, because 17% of voters decided the day of the election, and Hillary won them 39% to Obama's 36%. That's 6.63% of Hillary's voters deciding on election day. These are voters that are the most swayed by the campaigning and current media coverage. Those voters had to have the tear-up in mind; it was all over the news Monday.

Prior polls were showing an 8-point gap: Obama at 38 points, Hillary at 30. The 6.63% that Hillary got from day-of deciders doesn't make up for all of that, since the final result was Hillary 39%, Obama 36.5%. However, 21% of voters decided "in the last 3 days." That includes Monday when the story hit. Clinton was lost by 3 points to Obama with these voters, but it made up 7.14% of her support. This means anywhere from 6.63% to 13.77% of Hillary-voters could have been influenced by the tearing-up. The 9% difference between the result and the pre-election polls falls squarely within this range. I'm convinced that people moved to Hillary right before the election, and that the tearing-up story was a factor in this.

Hillary was up with all the other voters who decided in farther in advance by 3 points, 24.9% to Obama's 21.64%. She needed to not get hammered with the late-deciders in order to win, and she didn't.

So it's entirely possible that the reason the polls were wrong is that they did not capture the last-minute movement away from Obama and Edwards and towards Hillary.

The exit polls also showed a huge gender gap--Obama won 40% of males who voted Democratic, Clinton 29%, Obama won only 34% of the female vote, and Clinton 46%. I'm no expert on the psychology of gender, but I don't see many male voters being swayed by the tear-up. But perhaps I'm wrong. The tear-up totally threw me for a loop (as did Hillary's win, and Obama's Iowa win).

Here's why. The pressure of the campaign is so intense, it would crack a normal person like a soft peanut. When I saw it, I thought she'd cracked. I thought, "It can't be intentional." That's because I thought it couldn't help her win the race. Oh boy was I wrong. She had me, hook line and sinker. That's exactly what people are supposed to think, and that's why it comes off as genuine.

Here's part of an interview Hillary did Sunday with "Access Hollywood":

Interviewer: As a woman, how do you get that likeability factor that everyone is talking about across, because it's harder as a woman because you want to show that you are strong, and a leader, and how do you get that across when there's no model for it?

Hillary: I think you just have to be yourself again. I think that people that know me are out spreading the word that they've been my friend for a long time, or what I've done to help them or their family. It's funny, when I did a big event today there were these people yelling, "We like you!" It is just something you do everyday, be who you are. You can't be somebody you're not.

Interviewer: Well you've shown vulnerablity before when you said you know that hurts my feelings, and I just thought that was such a nice moment because it's true, you're not made of steel, you have feelings!

Hillary: Well no fooling. BUt again it's that difficult position that a woman candidate is in because if you get too emotional, that undercuts you. A man can cry; we know that; lots of our leaders have cried. But a woman--that's a different kind of dynamic.

Well well well. This makes me feel like a sadder but wiser girl. How could I possibly think that anything as important as the NH primary could elicit something unscripted and genuine? That was a moment worthy of Bill (Ron Brown's funeral!). Hillary deserved to win NH. I'm not being sarcastic at all--it was an amazing political performance. It was a gamble and it worked.

So it'll be a drag out fight. But a contested NH race hasn't picked a president since 1976. These early primaries are media circuses, and their job is to narrow the field of candidates. Iowa did it with Biden and Dodd, NH with Richardson. South Carolina will do it to Thompson. At this point on the Democratic side it's a draw.

Hillary's victory speech was typical Clinton me-tooism. The look was exactly the look of Obama's Iowa victory speech, with the crowd behind her giving such a powerful look of depth, and the family coming up on stage with her at the beginning.