Hillary is now behind Obama in Iowa, beyond the margin of error in one poll. She has had a major slide since early November. Take a look at the poll trends in Iowa and NH. She's gone from over 30% to the mid-20s in this time-frame.
Why this drop for Hillary? On Oct. 2nd I wrote a post entitled "Hillary is not invulnerable." Obama had just done an interview with the NY Times in which he promised to be a more bruising campaigner. All the buzz was about how Obama had wasted his chance over the summer, how the mojo was gone from his candidacy.
He came out and challenged Hillary in the debate where she took two positions on immigration at once. That was a big-time stumble for her and got a lot of news coverage. She responded by playing the gender card.
Obama then went on SNL for an opening skit that was a wicked parody of Hillary. He then gave a speech at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Iowa that won rave reviews.
I contend that these events moved the poll numbers Obama's way in the past thirty days.
Plus Obama is outspending Hillary in Iowa. The AP reports four days ago: "Clinton is spending at least $350,000 a week on television ads in Iowa, while Democratic challenger Sen. Barack Obama is spending around $400,000."
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